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Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment

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  • Richard Crump
  • Gopi Shah Goda
  • Kevin J. Mumford

Abstract

One of the most commonly cited studies on the effect of child subsidies on fertility, Whittington, Alm, and Peters (1990), claimed a large positive effect of child tax benefits on fertility using time series methods. We revisit this question in light of recent increases in child tax benefits by replicating this earlier study and extending the analysis. We do not find strong evidence to justify the model specification from the original paper. Moreover, even if the original specification is appropriate, we show that the results are not robust to more general measures of child tax benefits. (JEL H24, J13)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 101 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (June)
Pages: 1616-28

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:4:p:1616-28

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  1. Yoichi Arai & Eiji Kurozumi, 2007. "Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with a Structural Break," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 705-739.
  2. Bruce D. Meyer & Dan T. Rosenbaum, 1998. "Welfare, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Labor Supply of Single Mothers," JCPR Working Papers 32, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  3. Pierre Perron & Zhongjun Qu, 2006. "A Simple Modification to Improve the Finite Sample Properties of Ng and Perron’s Unit Root Tests," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-010, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  4. Leslie A. Whittington & James Alm & H. Elizabeth Peters, . "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy in the United States," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 89-6, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  5. Junsen Zhang & Jason Quan & Peter van Meerbergen, 1994. "The Effect of Tax-Transfer Policies on Fertility in Canada, 1921-88," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(1), pages 181-201.
  6. Kevin Milligan, 2002. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," NBER Working Papers 8845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Eissa, Nada & Hoynes, Hilary Williamson, 2004. "Taxes and the labor market participation of married couples: the earned income tax credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1931-1958, August.
  8. Joakim Westerlund & David L. Edgerton, 2007. "New Improved Tests for Cointegration with Structural Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 188-224, 03.
  9. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-64, October.
  10. Daniel Parent & Ling Wang, 2007. "Tax incentives and fertility in Canada: quantum vs tempo effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 371-400, May.
  11. Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin Mumford, 2010. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," NBER Working Papers 15984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1754-1792, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Sara LaLumia & James M. Salle & Nicolas Turner, 2013. "New Evidence on Taxes and the Timing of Birth," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-06, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  2. Sara LaLumia & James M. Sallee, 2011. "The Value of Honesty: Empirical Estimates from the Case of the Missing Children," NBER Working Papers 17247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin Mumford, 2010. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," NBER Working Papers 15984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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