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The Effect of Tax-Transfer Policies on Fertility in Canada, 1921-88

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  • Junsen Zhang
  • Jason Quan
  • Peter van Meerbergen

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect on fertility of the personal tax exemption for children, child tax credit, family allowances, and maternity leave benefits in Canada using time-series data from 1921 to 1988. It is found that the exemption, child tax credit, and family allowances all have significant and positive effects on fertility; the results are robust to a variety of specifications including first-differencing. While the three tax-transfer programs seem to be very distinct, the null hypothesis that they have no differential effects on fertility can hardly be rejected. All the results also hold for the cumulative effect of the three tax-transfer programs. The estimates predict that a large increase in the value of the tax-transfer programs would be needed to increase fertility to the replacement level.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Wisconsin Press in its journal Journal of Human Resources.

Volume (Year): 29 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 181-201

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Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:29:y:1994:i:1:p:181-201

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Web page: http://jhr.uwpress.org/

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Cited by:
  1. repec:hir:idecdp:3-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Leonid V. Azarnert, 2010. "Immigration, Fertility, and Human Capital: A Model of Economic Decline of the West," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo Group Munich 3025, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Marc Frenette, 2011. "How does the stork delegate work? Childbearing and the gender division of paid and unpaid labour," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 895-910, July.
  4. Paci, Pierella, 1999. "A bundle of joy or an expensive luxury : a comparative analysis of the economic environment for family formation in Western Europe," Social Protection Discussion Papers 20118, The World Bank.
  5. Mizuochi, Masaaki, 2012. "The Effect of Work-family Balance Policy on Childbirth and Women's Work," Discussion Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University 575, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  6. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 503-519, May.
  7. Daniel Chen, 2011. "Can countries reverse fertility decline? Evidence from France’s marriage and baby bonuses, 1929–1981," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 253-272, June.
  8. Simpson, Nicole B., 2013. "Families, Taxes and the Welfare System," IZA Discussion Papers 7369, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Ralph Lattimore & Clinton Pobke, 2008. "Recent Trends in Australian Fertility," Staff Working Papers, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia 0806, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
  10. Shinsuke Tanaka & Takahiro Ito, 2014. "Abolishing User Fees, Fertility Choice, and Educational Attainment," IDEC DP2 Series, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC) 4-1, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
  11. Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin Mumford, 2010. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," NBER Working Papers 15984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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