Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment
AbstractOne of the most commonly cited studies on the effect of child subsidies on fertility, Whittington, Alm and Peters (1990), claimed a large positive effect of child tax benefits on fertility using time series methods. We revisit this question in light of recent increases in child tax benefits by replicating this earlier study and extending the analysis. We do not find strong evidence to justify the model specification from the original paper. Moreover, even if the original specfication is appropriate, we show that the Whittington et al. results are not robust to more general measures of child tax benefits. While we do not find evidence that child tax benefits affect the level of fertility, we find some evidence of a short-run fertility response that occurs with a two-year lag.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15984.
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Note: CH PE
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Whittington, Leslie A & Alm, James & Peters, H Elizabeth, 1990.
"Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy in the United States,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 545-56, June.
- Whittington, L.A. & Peters, H.E., 1989. "Fertility And The Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy In The United States," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 89-6, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Leslie A. Whittington & James Alm & H. Elizabeth Peters, . "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy in the United States," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 89-6, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2007.
"A simple modification to improve the finite sample properties of Ng and Perron's unit root tests,"
Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 12-19, January.
- Pierre Perron & Zhongjun Qu, 2006. "A Simple Modification to Improve the Finite Sample Properties of Ng and Perron’s Unit Root Tests," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-010, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2001.
"Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with structural shifts,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1998,82, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-64, October.
- Sara LaLumia & James Sallee, 2013.
"The value of honesty: empirical estimates from the case of the missing children,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 192-224, April.
- Sara LaLumia & James M. Sallee, 2011. "The Value of Honesty: Empirical Estimates from the Case of the Missing Children," NBER Working Papers 17247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sara LaLumia & James Sallee, 2011. "The Value of Honesty: Empirical Estimates from the Case of the Missing Children," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-05, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Sara LaLumia & James M. Sallee & Nicholas Turner, 2013.
"New Evidence on Taxes and the Timing of Birth,"
NBER Working Papers
19283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.