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Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment

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  • Richard Crump
  • Gopi Shah Goda
  • Kevin Mumford

Abstract

One of the most commonly cited studies on the effect of child subsidies on fertility, Whittington, Alm and Peters (1990), claimed a large positive effect of child tax benefits on fertility using time series methods. We revisit this question in light of recent increases in child tax benefits by replicating this earlier study and extending the analysis. We do not find strong evidence to justify the model specification from the original paper. Moreover, even if the original specfication is appropriate, we show that the Whittington et al. results are not robust to more general measures of child tax benefits. While we do not find evidence that child tax benefits affect the level of fertility, we find some evidence of a short-run fertility response that occurs with a two-year lag.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15984.

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Date of creation: May 2010
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Publication status: published as Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin J. Mumford, 2011. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1616-28, June.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15984

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  1. Whittington, Leslie A & Alm, James & Peters, H Elizabeth, 1990. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 545-56, June.
  2. Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton , David, 2006. "New Improved Tests for Cointegration with Structural Breaks," Working Papers, Lund University, Department of Economics 2006:3, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  3. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with structural shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes 1998,82, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  4. Pierre Perron & Zhongjun Qu, 2006. "A Simple Modification to Improve the Finite Sample Properties of Ng and Perron’s Unit Root Tests," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics WP2006-010, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  5. Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin J. Mumford, 2011. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1616-28, June.
  6. Daniel Parent & Ling Wang, 2007. "Tax incentives and fertility in Canada: quantum vs tempo effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 371-400, May.
  7. Bruce D. Meyer & Dan T. Rosenbaum, 2001. "Welfare, The Earned Income Tax Credit, And The Labor Supply Of Single Mothers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 116(3), pages 1063-1114, August.
  8. Yoichi Arai & Eiji Kurozumi, 2007. "Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with a Structural Break," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 705-739.
  9. Kevin Milligan, 2002. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," NBER Working Papers 8845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1754-1792, December.
  11. Eissa, Nada & Hoynes, Hilary Williamson, 2004. "Taxes and the labor market participation of married couples: the earned income tax credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1931-1958, August.
  12. Junsen Zhang & Jason Quan & Peter van Meerbergen, 1994. "The Effect of Tax-Transfer Policies on Fertility in Canada, 1921-88," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(1), pages 181-201.
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Cited by:
  1. Sara LaLumia & James Sallee, 2011. "The Value of Honesty: Empirical Estimates from the Case of the Missing Children," Department of Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics, Williams College 2011-05, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  2. Sara LaLumia & James M. Salle & Nicolas Turner, 2013. "New Evidence on Taxes and the Timing of Birth," Department of Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics, Williams College 2013-06, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  3. Richard Crump & Gopi Shah Goda & Kevin J. Mumford, 2011. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1616-28, June.

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