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Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with Structural Breaks

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Author Info
Yoichi Arai (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
Eiji Kurozumi (Department of Economics, Hitotsubashi University)
Abstract

In this paper we propose residual-based tests for the null hypothesis of cointegration with structural breaks against the alternative of no cointegration. The Lagrange Multiplier test is proposed and its limiting distribution is obtained for the case in which the timing of a structural break is known. Then the test statistic is extended in two ways to deal with a structural break of unknown timing. The first test statistic, a plug-in version of the test statistic for known timing, replaces the true break point by the estimated one. We also propose a second test statistic where the break point is chosen to be most favorable for the null hypothesis. We show the limiting properties of both statistics under the null as well as the alternative. Critical values are calculated for the tests by simulation methods. Finite-sample simulations show that the empirical size of the test is close to the nominal one unless the regression error is very persistent and that the test rejects the null when no cointegrating relationship with a structural break is present.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-319.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2005cf319

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  19. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-64, October.
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  1. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
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