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The Optimizer's Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis

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  1. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2014. "Optimal strategies for selecting project portfolios using uncertain value estimates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 772-783.
  2. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2017. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Discussion Paper Series dp709, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  3. Becker, Kai Helge, 2016. "An outlook on behavioural OR – Three tasks, three pitfalls, one definition," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 806-815.
  4. Jordan Tong & Daniel Feiler, 2017. "A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3609-3627, November.
  5. Barbry, Adrien & Anjos, Miguel F. & Delage, Erick & Schell, Kristen R., 2019. "Robust self-scheduling of a price-maker energy storage facility in the New York electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 629-646.
  6. Ahmed Saif & Samir Elhedhli, 2019. "Sterilization network design," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 8(1), pages 91-115, March.
  7. Gary J. Summers, 2021. "Friction and Decision Rules in Portfolio Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 101-120, June.
  8. Onesun Steve Yoo & Kevin McCardle, 2020. "The Valuator’s Curse: Decision Analysis of Overvaluation and Disappointment in Acquisition," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 299-313, December.
  9. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Bråthen, Espen & Nissen-Meyer, Sigurd-Erik, 2010. "Evaluation of static hedging strategies for hydropower producers in the Nordic market," MPRA Paper 27133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Wei Liu & Li Yang & Bo Yu, 2022. "Kernel density estimation based distributionally robust mean-CVaR portfolio optimization," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 84(4), pages 1053-1077, December.
  11. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso, 2022. "What causes post-decision disappointment? Estimating the contributions of systematic and selection biases," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 587-600.
  12. Yue Zhao & Zhi Chen & Zhenzhen Zhang, 2023. "Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained p -Hub Center Problem," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(6), pages 1361-1382, November.
  13. Maoqi Liu & Li Zheng & Changchun Liu & Zhi‐Hai Zhang, 2023. "From share of choice to buyers' welfare maximization: Bridging the gap through distributionally robust optimization," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(4), pages 1205-1222, April.
  14. Bart P. G. Van Parys & Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani & Daniel Kuhn, 2021. "From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization Is Optimal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3387-3402, June.
  15. Pourmohammadi, Pardis & Saif, Ahmed, 2023. "Robust metamodel-based simulation-optimization approaches for designing hybrid renewable energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
  16. Keliang Wang & Leonardo Lozano & Carlos Cardonha & David Bergman, 2023. "Optimizing over an Ensemble of Trained Neural Networks," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 652-674, May.
  17. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2021. "Robust decision-making under risk and ambiguity," Papers 2104.12573, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
  18. Guopeng Song & Roel Leus, 2022. "Parallel Machine Scheduling Under Uncertainty: Models and Exact Algorithms," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 3059-3079, November.
  19. Erick Delage & Ahmed Saif, 2022. "The Value of Randomized Solutions in Mixed-Integer Distributionally Robust Optimization Problems," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 333-353, January.
  20. Georgia Perakis & Melvyn Sim & Qinshen Tang & Peng Xiong, 2023. "Robust Pricing and Production with Information Partitioning and Adaptation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1398-1419, March.
  21. Jeffrey M. Keisler & Patrick S. Noonan, 2012. "Communicating Analytic Results: A Tutorial for Decision Consultants," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 274-292, September.
  22. Alexandre Belloni & Mitchell J. Lovett & William Boulding & Richard Staelin, 2012. "Optimal Admission and Scholarship Decisions: Choosing Customized Marketing Offers to Attract a Desirable Mix of Customers," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 621-636, July.
  23. Dmitry B. Rokhlin, 2020. "Relative utility bounds for empirically optimal portfolios," Papers 2006.05204, arXiv.org.
  24. Shunichi Ohmori, 2021. "A Predictive Prescription Using Minimum Volume k -Nearest Neighbor Enclosing Ellipsoid and Robust Optimization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, January.
  25. Qinxiao Yu & Chun Cheng & Ning Zhu, 2022. "Robust Team Orienteering Problem with Decreasing Profits," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 3215-3233, November.
  26. Daniel Feiler & Jordan Tong, 2022. "From Noise to Bias: Overconfidence in New Product Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4685-4702, June.
  27. Ming Zhao & Nickolas Freeman & Kai Pan, 2023. "Robust Sourcing Under Multilevel Supply Risks: Analysis of Random Yield and Capacity," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 178-195, January.
  28. Aakil M. Caunhye & Douglas Alem, 2023. "Practicable robust stochastic optimization under divergence measures with an application to equitable humanitarian response planning," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(3), pages 759-806, September.
  29. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2018. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1779-1803, April.
  30. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2023. "Robust Decision-Making under Risk and Ambiguity," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 463, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  31. Shehadeh, Karmel S. & Cohn, Amy E.M. & Jiang, Ruiwei, 2020. "A distributionally robust optimization approach for outpatient colonoscopy scheduling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(2), pages 549-561.
  32. Utsav Sadana & Erick Delage, 2023. "The Value of Randomized Strategies in Distributionally Robust Risk-Averse Network Interdiction Problems," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 216-232, January.
  33. Ningyuan Chen & Anran Li & Kalyan Talluri, 2021. "Reviews and Self-Selection Bias with Operational Implications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7472-7492, December.
  34. Robert E. Marks, 2013. "The Satisficer’s Curse," Discussion Papers 2013-28, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  35. Dmitry B. Rokhlin, 2021. "Relative utility bounds for empirically optimal portfolios," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 93(3), pages 437-462, June.
  36. Yiling Zhang & Jin Dong, 2022. "Building Load Control Using Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Programs with Right-Hand Side Uncertainty and the Risk-Adjustable Variants," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 1531-1547, May.
  37. Mellahi, Kamel & Collings, David G., 2010. "The barriers to effective global talent management: The example of corporate élites in MNEs," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 143-149, April.
  38. Roozbeh, Iman & Hearne, John & Abbasi, Babak & Ozlen, Melih, 2021. "Decision support for wildfire asset protection: A two-stage stochastic programming approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  39. Saurabh Bansal & Genaro J. Gutierrez, 2020. "Estimating Uncertainties Using Judgmental Forecasts with Expert Heterogeneity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 363-380, March.
  40. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2021. "Robust Decision-Making Under Risk and Ambiguity," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 104, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  41. Wang, Duo & Yang, Kai & Yang, Lixing & Dong, Jianjun, 2023. "Two-stage distributionally robust optimization for disaster relief logistics under option contract and demand ambiguity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
  42. John R. Birge, 2023. "Uses of Sub-sample Estimates to Reduce Errors in Stochastic Optimization Models," Papers 2310.07052, arXiv.org.
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