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The Optimizer's Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis

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  1. repec:osf:osfxxx:8nr56_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Tsang, Man Yiu & Sit, Tony & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2025. "Adaptive robust online portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 321(1), pages 214-230.
  3. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2014. "Optimal strategies for selecting project portfolios using uncertain value estimates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 772-783.
  4. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2017. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Discussion Paper Series dp709, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  5. Kim, Seokwoo & Choi, Dong Gu, 2024. "A sample robust optimal bidding model for a virtual power plant," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(3), pages 1101-1113.
  6. Becker, Kai Helge, 2016. "An outlook on behavioural OR – Three tasks, three pitfalls, one definition," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 806-815.
  7. Daniel Feiler & Jordan Tong, 2022. "From Noise to Bias: Overconfidence in New Product Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4685-4702, June.
  8. Jordan Tong & Daniel Feiler, 2017. "A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3609-3627, November.
  9. Ming Zhao & Nickolas Freeman & Kai Pan, 2023. "Robust Sourcing Under Multilevel Supply Risks: Analysis of Random Yield and Capacity," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 178-195, January.
  10. Aakil M. Caunhye & Douglas Alem, 2023. "Practicable robust stochastic optimization under divergence measures with an application to equitable humanitarian response planning," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(3), pages 759-806, September.
  11. Barbry, Adrien & Anjos, Miguel F. & Delage, Erick & Schell, Kristen R., 2019. "Robust self-scheduling of a price-maker energy storage facility in the New York electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 629-646.
  12. Ahmed Saif & Samir Elhedhli, 2019. "Sterilization network design," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 8(1), pages 91-115, March.
  13. Stein-Erik Fleten & Espen Bråthen & Sigurd-Erik Nissen-Meyer, . "Evaluation of static hedging strategies for hydropower producers in the Nordic market," Journal of Energy Markets, Journal of Energy Markets.
  14. Gary J. Summers, 2021. "Friction and Decision Rules in Portfolio Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 101-120, June.
  15. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2018. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1779-1803, April.
  16. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2023. "Robust Decision-Making under Risk and Ambiguity," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 463, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  17. repec:osf:osfxxx:8nr56_v2 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Onesun Steve Yoo & Kevin McCardle, 2020. "The Valuator’s Curse: Decision Analysis of Overvaluation and Disappointment in Acquisition," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 299-313, December.
  19. Shehadeh, Karmel S. & Cohn, Amy E.M. & Jiang, Ruiwei, 2020. "A distributionally robust optimization approach for outpatient colonoscopy scheduling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(2), pages 549-561.
  20. Utsav Sadana & Erick Delage, 2023. "The Value of Randomized Strategies in Distributionally Robust Risk-Averse Network Interdiction Problems," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 216-232, January.
  21. Ningyuan Chen & Anran Li & Kalyan Talluri, 2021. "Reviews and Self-Selection Bias with Operational Implications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7472-7492, December.
  22. Wei Liu & Li Yang & Bo Yu, 2022. "Kernel density estimation based distributionally robust mean-CVaR portfolio optimization," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 84(4), pages 1053-1077, December.
  23. Qi Feng & J. George Shanthikumar, 2023. "The framework of parametric and nonparametric operational data analytics," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(9), pages 2685-2703, September.
  24. Robert E. Marks, 2013. "The Satisficer’s Curse," Discussion Papers 2013-28, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  25. Dmitry B. Rokhlin, 2021. "Relative utility bounds for empirically optimal portfolios," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 93(3), pages 437-462, June.
  26. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso, 2022. "What causes post-decision disappointment? Estimating the contributions of systematic and selection biases," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 587-600.
  27. Yue Zhao & Zhi Chen & Zhenzhen Zhang, 2023. "Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained p -Hub Center Problem," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(6), pages 1361-1382, November.
  28. Yiling Zhang & Jin Dong, 2022. "Building Load Control Using Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Programs with Right-Hand Side Uncertainty and the Risk-Adjustable Variants," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 1531-1547, May.
  29. Mellahi, Kamel & Collings, David G., 2010. "The barriers to effective global talent management: The example of corporate élites in MNEs," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 143-149, April.
  30. Maoqi Liu & Li Zheng & Changchun Liu & Zhi‐Hai Zhang, 2023. "From share of choice to buyers' welfare maximization: Bridging the gap through distributionally robust optimization," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(4), pages 1205-1222, April.
  31. Bart P. G. Van Parys & Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani & Daniel Kuhn, 2021. "From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization Is Optimal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3387-3402, June.
  32. Pourmohammadi, Pardis & Saif, Ahmed, 2023. "Robust metamodel-based simulation-optimization approaches for designing hybrid renewable energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
  33. Keliang Wang & Leonardo Lozano & Carlos Cardonha & David Bergman, 2023. "Optimizing over an Ensemble of Trained Neural Networks," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 652-674, May.
  34. Wang, Duo & Yang, Kai & Yuen, Kum Fai & Yang, Lixing & Dong, Jianjun, 2024. "Hybrid risk-averse location-inventory-allocation with secondary disaster considerations in disaster relief logistics: A distributionally robust approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
  35. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2021. "Robust decision-making under risk and ambiguity," Papers 2104.12573, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
  36. Guopeng Song & Roel Leus, 2022. "Parallel Machine Scheduling Under Uncertainty: Models and Exact Algorithms," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 3059-3079, November.
  37. Salo, Ahti & Doumpos, Michalis & Liesiö, Juuso & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2024. "Fifty years of portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 1-18.
  38. Sadana, Utsav & Chenreddy, Abhilash & Delage, Erick & Forel, Alexandre & Frejinger, Emma & Vidal, Thibaut, 2025. "A survey of contextual optimization methods for decision-making under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 320(2), pages 271-289.
  39. Roozbeh, Iman & Hearne, John & Abbasi, Babak & Ozlen, Melih, 2021. "Decision support for wildfire asset protection: A two-stage stochastic programming approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  40. Chen, Qingxin & Ma, Shoufeng & Li, Hongming & Zhu, Ning & He, Qiao-Chu, 2024. "Optimizing bike rebalancing strategies in free-floating bike-sharing systems: An enhanced distributionally robust approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  41. Guanyu Jin & Roger J. A. Laeven & Dick den Hertog & Aharon Ben-Tal, 2024. "Constructing Uncertainty Sets for Robust Risk Measures: A Composition of $\phi$-Divergences Approach to Combat Tail Uncertainty," Papers 2412.05234, arXiv.org.
  42. Ren, Ke & Bidkhori, Hoda & Shen, Zuo-Jun Max, 2024. "Data-driven inventory policy: Learning from sequentially observed non-stationary data," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  43. Erick Delage & Ahmed Saif, 2022. "The Value of Randomized Solutions in Mixed-Integer Distributionally Robust Optimization Problems," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 333-353, January.
  44. Georgia Perakis & Melvyn Sim & Qinshen Tang & Peng Xiong, 2023. "Robust Pricing and Production with Information Partitioning and Adaptation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1398-1419, March.
  45. Saurabh Bansal & Genaro J. Gutierrez, 2020. "Estimating Uncertainties Using Judgmental Forecasts with Expert Heterogeneity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 363-380, March.
  46. Sun, Peng & Zhao, Dongpan & Chen, Qingxin & Yu, Xinyao & Zhu, Ning, 2025. "Distributionally robust optimization for pre-disaster facility location problem with 3D printing," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  47. Jeffrey M. Keisler & Patrick S. Noonan, 2012. "Communicating Analytic Results: A Tutorial for Decision Consultants," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 274-292, September.
  48. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2021. "Robust Decision-Making Under Risk and Ambiguity," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 104, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  49. Alexandre Belloni & Mitchell J. Lovett & William Boulding & Richard Staelin, 2012. "Optimal Admission and Scholarship Decisions: Choosing Customized Marketing Offers to Attract a Desirable Mix of Customers," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 621-636, July.
  50. Dmitry B. Rokhlin, 2020. "Relative utility bounds for empirically optimal portfolios," Papers 2006.05204, arXiv.org.
  51. Shunichi Ohmori, 2021. "A Predictive Prescription Using Minimum Volume k -Nearest Neighbor Enclosing Ellipsoid and Robust Optimization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, January.
  52. Wang, Duo & Yang, Kai & Yang, Lixing & Dong, Jianjun, 2023. "Two-stage distributionally robust optimization for disaster relief logistics under option contract and demand ambiguity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
  53. Brandon Tam & Silvana M. Pesenti, 2025. "Dimension Reduction of Distributionally Robust Optimization Problems," Papers 2504.06381, arXiv.org.
  54. Cheng, Chun & Yu, Qinxiao & Adulyasak, Yossiri & Rousseau, Louis-Martin, 2024. "Distributionally robust facility location with uncertain facility capacity and customer demand," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  55. Qinxiao Yu & Chun Cheng & Ning Zhu, 2022. "Robust Team Orienteering Problem with Decreasing Profits," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 3215-3233, November.
  56. John R. Birge, 2023. "Uses of Sub-sample Estimates to Reduce Errors in Stochastic Optimization Models," Papers 2310.07052, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
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