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Four centuries of return predictability

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Xu, Ke-Li, 2025. "A revisit to bias-adjusted predictive regression," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  2. Muhammad Jawad & Munazza Naz & Zaib Maroof & Nauman Waheed & Tahani Rashid, 2023. "Impact of stock investment on economic performance: a comparative study of on developed & developing economies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2013-2032, June.
  3. Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Yuriy Kitsul & Jamil Rahman & Beth Anne Wilson, 2024. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty and U.S. equity returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1401, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Ma, Rui & Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2024. "New Zealand long-term equity returns and their determinants," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  5. Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2022. "Predicting returns and dividend growth — The role of non-Gaussian innovations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
  6. Rebecca Stuart, 2022. "Stock Return Predictability before the First World War," IRENE Working Papers 22-02, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Rodney Edvinsson & Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2025. "Does money growth predict inflation in Sweden? Evidence from vector autoregressions using four centuries of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(4), pages 1613-1635, April.
  8. Dominique Pépin & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "The Time-Varying Nature of Risk Aversion: Evidence from 60 Years of U.S. Stock Market Data," Working papers 2020-09, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  9. Lin, Qi, 2021. "The q5 model and its consistency with the intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
  10. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2020. "The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Akin, Isik & Khan, Muhammad Zubair & Hameed, Affan & Chebbi, Kaouthar & Satiroglu, Hakan, 2023. "The ripple effects of CBDC-related news on Bitcoin returns: Insights from the DCC-GARCH model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  12. Anibal Emiliano Da Silva Neto & Jesús Gonzalo & Jean‐Yves Pitarakis, 2021. "Uncovering Regimes in Out of Sample Forecast Errors from Predictive Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 713-741, June.
  13. Victoria Atanasov & Stig V. Møller & Richard Priestley, 2020. "Consumption Fluctuations and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1677-1713, June.
  14. Verdickt, Gertjan, 2020. "Is fertility a leading indicator for stock returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
  15. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
  16. Prat, Georges & Le Bris, David, 2024. "Term structure of equity risk premia in rough terrain: 150 years of the French stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  17. Anarkulova, Aizhan & Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S., 2022. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from a broad sample of developed markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 409-433.
  18. Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2021. "Stock return predictability over four centuries: The role of commodity returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
  19. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2603-2665, August.
  20. Pham, Quynh Thi Thuy, 2021. "Stock Return Predictability: Evidence Across US Industries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
  21. Yaoting Lei & Ya Li & Jing Xu, 2020. "Two Birds, One Stone: Joint Timing of Returns and Capital Gains Taxes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 823-843, February.
  22. Moreira, Alan & Muir, Tyler, 2019. "Should Long-Term Investors Time Volatility?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 507-527.
  23. Juan M. Londono & Nancy R. Xu, 2019. "Variance Risk Premium Components and International Stock Return Predictability," International Finance Discussion Papers 1247, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Yin, Anwen, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and optimal portfolio decision with Bagging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  25. Luigi Buzzacchi & Luca Ghezzi, 2023. "Mean Reversion Lessens Mean Blur: Evidence from the S&P Composite Index," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
  26. Cao, Zhen & Han, Liyan & Zhang, Qunzi, 2022. "Stock return predictability in China: Power of oil price trend," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
  27. Ana Sofia Monteiro & Helder Sebastião & Nuno Silva, 2025. "Prediction and Allocation of Stocks, Bonds, and REITs in the US Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(3), pages 1191-1230, March.
  28. Rojo-Suárez, Javier & Alonso-Conde, Ana B. & Gonzalez-Ruiz, Juan David, 2024. "Does sustainability improve financial performance? An analysis of Latin American oil and gas firms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  29. Alcide Bennet & Brandon Renfro, 2020. "Valuation, Dividend Yield, and the Expenditure Savings Multiple," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 96-100.
  30. Sun, Yulong, 2024. "Prices and returns: Role of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  31. Edvinsson, Rodney & Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Does Money Growth Predict Inflation? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions Using Four Centuries of Data," Working Papers 2023:3, Örebro University, School of Business.
  32. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2020. "A bootstrap test for predictability of asset returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
  33. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Tharann, Björn & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2025. "Predicting the equity premium around the globe: Comprehensive evidence from a large sample," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 208-228.
  34. Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Hongkui & Tang, Guohao & Yu, Jiasheng, 2024. "Global mispricing matters," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  35. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2021. "The quest for multidimensional financial immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  36. Seda Oz & Steve Fortin, 2023. "Is it time for popcorn? Daily box office earnings and aggregate stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 375-401, June.
  37. Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2019. "Predictive Regressions," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28554, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  38. Thach Pham & Deepa Bannigidadmath & Robert Powell, 2025. "Industry return predictability using health policy uncertainty," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-42, December.
  39. Rama K. Malladi & Prakash L. Dheeriya, 2021. "Time series analysis of Cryptocurrency returns and volatilities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 75-94, January.
  40. Gerrard, Russell & Hiabu, Munir & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Vodička, Peter, 2020. "Long-term real dynamic investment planning," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 90-103.
  41. Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Zhang, Huajing, 2023. "International stock return predictability: The role of U.S. uncertainty spillover," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  42. Huang, Dashan & Li, Jiangyuan & Wang, Liyao, 2021. "Are disagreements agreeable? Evidence from information aggregation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 83-101.
  43. Baltussen, Guido & Swinkels, Laurens & Van Vliet, Pim, 2021. "Global factor premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1128-1154.
  44. Bing Han & Gang Li, 2021. "Information Content of Aggregate Implied Volatility Spread," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1249-1269, February.
  45. Kroencke, Tim A., 2022. "Recessions and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 61-77.
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