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Is the Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio Useful for Predicting UK Stock Returns?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2013. "Breaking into the blackbox: Trend following, stop losses and the frequency of trading – The case of the S&P500," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(3), pages 182-194, June.
  2. Samet Günay, 2017. "Risk Configuration of S&P 500 Industries: Sigma-risk and Alpha-risk Approximation," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(2), pages 196-221, May.
  3. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The output gap and stock returns: Do cyclical fluctuations predict portfolio returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 40-50.
  4. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
  5. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Kan Tang, Sam Hak & Wu, Yanrui, 2008. "The profitability of regression-based trading rules for the Shanghai stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 411-430.
  6. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
  7. David McMillan & Mark Wohar, 2013. "UK stock market predictability: evidence of time variation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(12), pages 1043-1055, June.
  8. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Are Uk Share Prices Too High? Fundamental Value Or New Era," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 1-20, January.
  9. Alain Durré & Pierre Giot, 2007. "An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3‐4), pages 613-641, April.
  10. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Market efficiency today," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  11. David G McMillan, 2011. "Does the BEYR help predict UK sector returns?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(2), pages 146-156, June.
  12. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2010. "Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis," IZA Discussion Papers 5037, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  13. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "The relation between the equity risk premium and the bond maturity premium in the UK: 1900–2006," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 111-127, April.
  14. Jeffrey E. Jarrett, 2008. "Predicting Daily Stock Returns: A Lengthy Study of the Hong Kong and Tokyo Stock Exchanges," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(1), pages 37-51, April.
  15. Jeffrey Jarrett & Eric Kyper, 2006. "Capital market efficiency and the predictability of daily returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 631-636.
  16. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Manzoni, Katiuscia, 2002. "Modeling credit spreads: An application to the sterling Eurobond market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 183-218.
  18. T.J. Flavin & M.R. Wickens, 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
  19. Fabrice Hervé, 2003. "La persistance de la performance des fonds de pension individuels britanniques:une étude empirique sur des fonds investis en actions et des fonds obligataires," Revue Finance Contrôle Stratégie, revues.org, vol. 6(3), pages 41-77, September.
  20. Thomas J. Flavin & Michael R. Wickens, 1998. ": A Risk Management Approach to Optimal Asset Allocation," Economics Department Working Paper Series n851298, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  21. Simon Hayes, 2001. "Leading indicator information in UK equity prices: an assessment of economic tracking portfolios," Bank of England working papers 137, Bank of England.
  22. Brooks, Chris & Persand, Gita, 2001. "The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt-equity yield ratio," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 11-29.
  23. Moreno, David & Olmeda, Ignacio, 2007. "Is the predictability of emerging and developed stock markets really exploitable?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 436-454, October.
  24. Ziliotto, Arianna & Serati, Massimiliano, 2015. "The semi-strong efficiency debate: In search of a new testing framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 412-438.
  25. McMillan, David G., 2019. "Stock return predictability: Using the cyclical component of the price ratio," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 228-242.
  26. Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche & Niall O'Sullivan, 2010. "The Market Timing Ability of UK Mutual Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1-2), pages 270-289.
  27. Angelos Kanas, 2010. "A note on the relation between the equity risk premium and the term structure," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(1), pages 89-95, January.
  28. Migiakis, Petros M. & Bekiris, Fivos V., 2009. "Regime switches between dividend and bond yields," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 198-204, September.
  29. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  30. Alexandra Krystalogianni & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2005. "Regime switching in yield structures and real estate investment," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 279-299, May.
  31. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart, 2012. "Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? A long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 695-716.
  32. Andreas Humpe & David G. McMillan, 2018. "Equity/bond yield correlation and the FED model: evidence of switching behaviour from the G7 markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(6), pages 413-428, October.
  33. Andrew Clare & Richard Priestley, 1996. "Estimating the cost of capital of the UK's newly privatized utilities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(10), pages 653-657.
  34. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hyde, Stuart, 2002. "Excess volatility and efficiency in French and German stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 399-418, May.
  35. Neil Kellard & John Nankervis & Fotis Papadimitriou, 2007. "Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 129, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  36. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1999. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-19.
  37. James Chong & Drew Fountaine & Monica Her & Michael Phillips, 2009. "EVA: The bubble years, meltdown and beyond," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(3), pages 181-191, August.
  38. Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche & Niall O'Sullivan, 2010. "The Market Timing Ability of UK Mutual Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1‐2), pages 270-289, January.
  39. Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "International Evidence of the Predictability of Prices of Securititised Real Estate Assets: Econometric Models versus Neural Networks," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2001-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
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