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Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015. "Dynamic predictive density combinations for large data sets in economics and finance," Working Paper 2015/12, Norges Bank.
  2. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
  3. Monticini, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 304-315.
  4. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
  5. Nikolay P. Pilnik & Igor Pospelov & Ivan P. Stankevich, 2015. "Multiproduct Model Decomposition of Components of Russian GDP," HSE Working papers WP BRP 111/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  6. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
  7. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 638-657.
  8. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
  9. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
  10. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
  11. Alexander, Carol & Han, Yang & Meng, Xiaochun, 2023. "Static and dynamic models for multivariate distribution forecasts: Proper scoring rule tests of factor-quantile versus multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1078-1096.
  12. Francesco Ravazzolo & Marco J. Lombardi, 2012. "Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets," Working Papers No 3/2012, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  13. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
  14. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
  15. Gelain, Paolo & Iskrev, Nikolay & J. Lansing, Kevin & Mendicino, Caterina, 2019. "Inflation dynamics and adaptive expectations in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 258-277.
  16. Berg Tim Oliver, 2017. "Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
  17. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
  18. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
  19. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
  20. Barbara Rossi, 2018. "Identifying and estimating the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the data: How to do It and what have we learned?," Economics Working Papers 1641, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2020.
  21. Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2017. "Euromind‐ D : A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 683-703, April.
  22. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Angela Abbate & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time varying parameter models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(1), pages 155-179, January.
  24. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014. "Probability Forecasting for Inflation Warnings from the Federal Reserve," EMF Research Papers 07, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
  25. Lan Bai & Xiafei Li & Yu Wei & Guiwu Wei, 2022. "Does crude oil futures price really help to predict spot oil price? New evidence from density forecasting," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3694-3712, July.
  26. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Density Forecasts With Midas Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 783-801, June.
  28. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2017. "Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 442-457.
  29. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2020. "A Bayesian Dynamic Compositional Model for Large Density Combinations in Finance," Working Paper series 20-27, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  30. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1218, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  31. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
  32. Ravazzolo Francesco & Rothman Philip, 2016. "Oil-price density forecasts of US GDP," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 441-453, September.
  33. Bo Zhang, 2019. "Real‐time inflation forecast combination for time‐varying coefficient models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 175-191, April.
  34. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Aggregate Density Forecasting from Disaggregate Components Using Large VARs," MPRA Paper 76849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Wang, Yudong & Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2016. "Forecasting realized volatility in a changing world: A dynamic model averaging approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 136-149.
  36. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
  37. Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Tobias Ingebrigtsen, 2022. "Aggregate density forecast of models using disaggregate data - A copula approach," Working Paper 2022/5, Norges Bank.
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