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Pricing in the Primary Market for Cat Bonds: New Empirical Evidence

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  1. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Chen, Yining, 2021. "A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 140-162.
  2. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Melin, Olena, 2023. "Identification-robust beta pricing, spanning, mimicking portfolios, and the benchmark neutrality of catastrophe bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
  3. Tobias Götze & Marc Gürtler, 2022. "Risk transfer beyond reinsurance: the added value of CAT bonds," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(1), pages 125-171, January.
  4. Tobias Götze & Marc Gürtler & Eileen Witowski, 2023. "Forecasting accuracy of machine learning and linear regression: evidence from the secondary CAT bond market," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(9), pages 1629-1660, November.
  5. Stupfler, Gilles & Yang, Fan, 2018. "Analyzing And Predicting Cat Bond Premiums: A Financial Loss Premium Principle And Extreme Value Modeling," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 375-411, January.
  6. Morana, Claudio & Sbrana, Giacomo, 2019. "Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 274-294.
  7. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2019. "Measuring the liquidity impact on catastrophe bond spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 197-210.
  8. Beer, Simone & Braun, Alexander & Bühler, Pascal & Eling, Martin & Maas, Peter & Reichel, Lukas & Rüfenacht, Matthias & Schaper, Philipp & Schmeiser, Hato & Schreiber, Florian & Steiner, Philipp Hendr, 2017. "Assekuranz 2025: Quo vadis?," I.VW HSG Schriftenreihe, University of St.Gallen, Institute of Insurance Economics (I.VW-HSG), volume 63, number 63.
  9. Tobias Götze & Marc Gürtler & Eileen Witowski, 2020. "Improving CAT bond pricing models via machine learning," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(5), pages 428-446, September.
  10. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Hard markets, hard times: On the inefficiency of the CAT bond market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  11. Hua Chen & Richard D. MacMinn & Tao Sun, 2017. "Mortality Dependence and Longevity Bond Pricing: A Dynamic Factor Copula Mortality Model With the GAS Structure," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(S1), pages 393-415, April.
  12. Frances C. Moore, 2024. "Learning, Catastrophic Risk, and Ambiguity in the Climate-Change Era," NBER Chapters, in: Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, volume 6, pages 140-168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Delis, Manthos & Iosifidi, Maria & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsoumas, Chris, 2021. "Economic preferences over risk-taking and corporate finance," MPRA Paper 106321, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Braun, Alexander & Ben Ammar, Semir & Eling, Martin, 2019. "Asset pricing and extreme event risk: Common factors in ILS fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 59-78.
  15. Dixon Domfeh & Arpita Chatterjee & Matthew Dixon, 2022. "A Unified Bayesian Framework for Pricing Catastrophe Bond Derivatives," Papers 2205.04520, arXiv.org.
  16. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Chen, Yining, 2021. "A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111529, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  17. Beer, Simone & Braun, Alexander & Marugg, Andrin, 2019. "Pricing industry loss warranties in a Lévy–Frailty framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 171-181.
  18. Semir Ben Ammar, 2020. "Catastrophe Risk and the Implied Volatility Smile," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(2), pages 381-405, June.
  19. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Schröder, Henning & Tegtmeier, Lars, 2020. "The role of catastrophe bonds in an international multi-asset portfolio: Diversifier, hedge, or safe haven?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
  20. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Iosifidi, Maria & Tsoumas, Chris, 2023. "Economic preferences for risk-taking and financing costs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  21. Tobias Götze & Marc Gürtler & Eileen Witowski, 0. "Improving CAT bond pricing models via machine learning," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 0, pages 1-19.
  22. Beer, Simone & Braun, Alexander, 2022. "Market-consistent valuation of natural catastrophe risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  23. Eling, Martin & Jung, Kwangmin, 2020. "Risk aggregation in non-life insurance: Standard models vs. internal models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 183-198.
  24. John A. Major, 2019. "Methodological Considerations in the Statistical Modeling of Catastrophe Bond Prices," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 39-56, March.
  25. Despoina Makariou & Pauline Barrieu & Yining Chen, 2020. "A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market," Papers 2001.10393, arXiv.org.
  26. Krzysztof Burnecki & Marek Teuerle & Martyna Zdeb, 2025. "Modelling and valuation of catastrophe bonds across multiple regions," Papers 2512.08890, arXiv.org.
  27. Ben Ammar, Semir, 2016. "Pricing of Catastrophe Risk and the Implied Volatility Smile," Working Papers on Finance 1617, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  28. Hong Li & Jianxi Su, 2024. "Mitigating wildfire losses via insurance‐linked securities: Modeling and risk management perspectives," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 91(2), pages 383-414, June.
  29. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Risk transfer and moral hazard: An examination on the market for insurance-linked securities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 758-777.
  30. Jacek Wszo{l}a & Krzysztof Burnecki & Marek Teuerle & Martyna Zdeb, 2025. "Design and valuation of multi-region CoCoCat bonds," Papers 2510.17221, arXiv.org.
  31. Faias, José Afonso & Guedes, José, 2020. "The diffusion of complex securities: The case of CAT bonds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 46-57.
  32. Marc Gürtler & Eileen Witowski, 2025. "Superior forecasting with simple AR(1) models in a low-volatility environment: evidence from the CAT bond market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(3), pages 255-270, May.
  33. Peter Carayannopoulos & Olga Kanj & M. Fabricio Perez, 2022. "Pricing dynamics in the market for catastrophe bonds," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(1), pages 172-202, January.
  34. Adlane Haffar & Éric Le Fur, 2022. "Dependence structure of CAT bonds and portfolio diversification: a copula-GARCH approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 297-309, July.
  35. Xiaowei Chen & Hong Li & Yufan Lu & Rui Zhou, 2024. "Unveiling Nonlinear Dynamics in Catastrophe Bond Pricing: A Machine Learning Perspective," Papers 2405.00697, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
  36. Ning Ma, 2025. "A CAT Bond Pricing Model Based on the Distortion of Aggregate Loss Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-26, September.
  37. Subramanian, Ajay & Wang, Jinjing, 2018. "Reinsurance versus securitization of catastrophe risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 55-72.
  38. Cappiello, Antonella & Vannucci, Emanuele, 2025. "Is the climate-linked CAT bond market efficiently priced? A risk–return analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  39. Markus Herrmann & Martin Hibbeln, 2021. "Seasonality in catastrophe bonds and market‐implied catastrophe arrival frequencies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 785-818, September.
  40. Wu, Yang-Che, 2020. "Equilibrium in natural catastrophe insurance market under disaster-resistant technologies, financial innovations and government interventions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 116-128.
  41. Krzysztof Burnecki & Mario Nicoló Giuricich, 2017. "Stable Weak Approximation at Work in Index-Linked Catastrophe Bond Pricing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-19, December.
  42. Burnecki, Krzysztof & Giuricich, Mario Nicoló & Palmowski, Zbigniew, 2019. "Valuation of contingent convertible catastrophe bonds — The case for equity conversion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 238-254.
  43. Markus Herrmann & Martin Hibbeln, 2023. "Trading and liquidity in the catastrophe bond market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 283-328, June.
  44. Braun, Alexander & Braun, Julia & Weigert, Florian, 2023. "Extreme weather risk and the cost of equity," CFR Working Papers 23-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  45. Yifan Tang & Conghua Wen & Chengxiu Ling & Yuqing Zhang, 2023. "Pricing Multi-Event-Triggered Catastrophe Bonds Based on a Copula–POT Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
  46. Morton Lane, 2024. "The ILS loss experience: natural catastrophe issues 2001–2020," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(1), pages 97-137, January.
  47. Chatoro, Marian & Mitra, Sovan & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Shao, Jia, 2023. "Catastrophe bond pricing in the primary market: The issuer effect and pricing factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  48. Carolyn W. Chang & Jack S. K. Chang & Min‐Teh Yu & Yang Zhao, 2020. "Portfolio optimization in the catastrophe space," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1414-1448, November.
  49. Julia Ko'nczal & Micha{l} Balcerek & Krzysztof Burnecki, 2025. "Machine learning models for predicting catastrophe bond coupons using climate data," Papers 2512.22660, arXiv.org.
  50. Greg Niehaus, 2023. "Personal taxes, cost of insurer equity capital, and the case of offshore hedge fund reinsurers," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 249-281, June.
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