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Methodological Considerations in the Statistical Modeling of Catastrophe Bond Prices

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  • John A. Major

Abstract

The problem of specifying and fitting a statistical model of the pricing of property catastrophe risk is addressed from a methodological perspective. Notable 21st century published efforts to do this are reviewed. The problem is framed in a business context and various strategic and tactical issues are investigated. A naïve application of ordinary least squares regression is seen to have undesirable consequences. Alternative approaches are offered, including weighted least squares with weights inversely proportional to capital requirements, and alternative functional forms. Recommendations are offered.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Major, 2019. "Methodological Considerations in the Statistical Modeling of Catastrophe Bond Prices," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 39-56, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rmgtin:v:22:y:2019:i:1:p:39-56
    DOI: 10.1111/rmir.12114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Chen, Yining, 2021. "A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111529, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Chen, Yining, 2021. "A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 140-162.
    3. Chatoro, Marian & Mitra, Sovan & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Shao, Jia, 2023. "Catastrophe bond pricing in the primary market: The issuer effect and pricing factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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