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Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

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Cited by:

  1. David Bessler & Robert Ruffley, 2004. "Prequential analysis of stock market returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 399-412.
  2. Fergus Bolger & Gene Rowe, 2015. "The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 5-11, January.
  3. Dimitriadis, Timo & Gneiting, Tilmann & Jordan, Alexander I. & Vogel, Peter, 2024. "Evaluating probabilistic classifiers: The triptych," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1101-1122.
  4. M Revie & T Bedford & L Walls, 2010. "Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(4), pages 322-332, December.
  5. Hyukjun Gweon, 2023. "A power-controlled reliability assessment for multi-class probabilistic classifiers," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 17(4), pages 927-949, December.
  6. Kriti Jain & Kanchan Mukherjee & J. Neil Bearden & Anil Gaba, 2013. "Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(9), pages 1970-1987, September.
  7. Jeryl L. Mumpower & Steven Livingston & Thomas J. Lee, 1987. "Expert judgments of political riskiness," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 51-65.
  8. D. Marc Kilgour & Yigal Gerchak, 2004. "Elicitation of Probabilities Using Competitive Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 108-113, June.
  9. Josef Frysak & Edward W. N. Bernroider & Konradin Maier, 2017. "An Effort Feedback Perspective on Persuasive Decision Aids for Multi-Attribute Decision-Making," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(01), pages 161-181, January.
  10. Abel Sancarlos & Edgar Bahilo & Pablo Mozo & Lukas Norman & Obaid Ur Rehma & Mihails Anufrijevs, 2023. "Towards a data-driven debt collection strategy based on an advanced machine learning framework," Papers 2311.06292, arXiv.org.
  11. Stephen C. Hora, 2010. "An Analytic Method for Evaluating the Performance of Aggregation Rules for Probability Densities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1440-1449, October.
  12. repec:cup:judgdm:v:9:y:2014:i:5:p:445-464 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Lukas Hägele & Mathias Klier & Lars Moestue & Andreas Obermeier, 2025. "Aspect-based currency of customer reviews: A novel probability-based metric to pave the way for data quality-aware decision-making," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 35(1), pages 1-18, December.
  14. Miley W. Merkhofer & Ralph L. Keeney, 1987. "A Multiattribute Utility Analysis of Alternative Sites for the Disposal of Nuclear Waste," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 173-194, June.
  15. Thomas McAndrew & Nicholas G Reich, 2022. "An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(9), pages 1-19, September.
  16. Richard D. Johnson & George M. Marakas, 2000. "Research Report: The Role of Behavioral Modeling in Computer Skills Acquisition: Toward Refinement of the Model," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 402-417, December.
  17. Dharmasena, Senarath & Bessler, David & Capps, Oral. Jr, 2016. "On the Evaluation of Probability Forecasts: An Application to Qualitative Choice Models," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235424, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  18. James S. Dyer & James E. Smith, 2021. "Innovations in the Science and Practice of Decision Analysis: The Role of Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5364-5378, September.
  19. Astebro, Thomas B. & Fossen, Frank M. & Gutierrez, Cédric, 2024. "Entrepreneurs: Clueless, Biased, Poor Heuristics, or Bayesian Machines?," HEC Research Papers Series 1529, HEC Paris.
  20. Victor Richmond R. Jose & Robert L. Winkler, 2009. "Evaluating Quantile Assessments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1287-1297, October.
  21. K J Wilson & M Farrow, 2010. "Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(4), pages 309-321, December.
  22. Saiwing Yeung, 2014. "Framing effect in evaluation of others' predictions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(5), pages 445-464, September.
  23. Jain, Kriti & Bearden, J. Neil & Filipowicz, Allan, 2013. "Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-79.
  24. Olszewski, Wojciech, 2015. "Calibration and Expert Testing," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,, Elsevier.
  25. James K. Hammitt & Alexander I. Shlyakhter, 1999. "The Expected Value of Information and the Probability of Surprise," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 135-152, February.
  26. Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar & Lechner, Christian, 2013. "Cognitive biases, organization, and entrepreneurial firm survival," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 278-294.
  27. McKenzie, Craig R.M. & Liersch, Michael J. & Yaniv, Ilan, 2008. "Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 179-191, November.
  28. Mary Kynn, 2008. "The ‘heuristics and biases’ bias in expert elicitation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 239-264, January.
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