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Climate Policy Beyond Kyoto: Quo Vadis? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Based on Expert Judgements

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  • Böhringer, Christoph
  • Löschel, Andreas

Abstract

Despite of the apparent failure of the Kyoto Protocol with respect to environmental effectiveness, it has established a broad international mechanism that might be able to provide a global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions during a second commitment period. In this paper we investigate the likely future of post-Kyoto policies. Our primary objective is to identify policy-relevant abatement scenarios and to quantify the associated economic implications across major world regions. Based on a cross-impact analysis we first evaluate an expert poll to select the most likely post-Kyoto climate policy scenarios. We then use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic implications of these key scenarios. We find that post-Kyoto agreements are likely to cover only small reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions with abatement duties predominantly assigned to the industrialized countries while developing countries do not make any commitments, but can sell emission abatement to the industrialized world. Equity rules to allocate abatement duties are mainly based on the sovereignty principle or ability-to-pay. Global adjustment costs arising from post-Kyoto policies are very moderate but fuel exporting countries are likely to face quite considerable costs because of adverse terms-of-trade effects on fossil fuel markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Böhringer, Christoph & Löschel, Andreas, 2003. "Climate Policy Beyond Kyoto: Quo Vadis? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Based on Expert Judgements," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-09, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:911
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Cantore & Emilio Padilla, 2007. "Equity and CO2 Emissions Distribution in Climate Change Integrated Assessment," Working Papers wpdea0705, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    2. Nicola Cantore & Emilio Padilla, 2009. "Emissions distribution in post–Kyoto international negotiations: a policy perspective," Working Papers wpdea0907, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    3. Cantore, Nicola & Padilla, Emilio, 2010. "Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 298-313.
    4. Peterson, Everett B. & Schleich, Joachim & Duscha, Vicki, 2011. "Environmental and economic effects of the Copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3697-3708, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate policy; cross-impact analysis; computable general equilibrium modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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