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Überlebenschancen neu gegründeter Firmen: Ein evolutionstheoretischer Zugang

  • Bruckner, Eberhard
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    In der vorliegenden Studie wird eine partielle Neutralisierung der Wirkungen der Selektion in einer ersten Wachstumsphase nach Gründung des Unternehmens als Ursache für die verminderte Sterblichkeit diagnostiziert. Zugleich erklärt sie die Möglichkeit des Eintritts und Überlebens mit suboptimalen Eintrittsgrößen. Das Problemfeld des „new firm survival“ wird mit Hilfe eines stochastischen Evolutionsmodells untersucht, das in der Physik seit Beginn der 80er Jahre entwickelt wurde, um das Problem des Überlebens neuer Varianten in komplexen adaptiven Systemen zu untersuchen. Das Forschungskonzept der vorliegenden Studie entwickelt ein Zwei–Phasen–Modell des Wachstums einer neuen Firma, das durch Anwendung des stochastischen Instrumentariums in ein Zwei–Phasen–Modell des Überlebens transformiert wird, das den Aussagegehalt der Hypothese der „liability of adolescence“ wiedergibt. Wie in den herkömmlichen Untersuchungen zur „liability of adolescence“ fungiert im Zusammenspiel mit den beiden Phasen die Eintrittsgröße als relevanter Indikator des „new firm survival“. Im evolutionstheoretischen Analyseschema sind darüber hinaus die Produktbewertung der Firmen durch die Kunden sowie ein weiterer Indikator unerlässlich, der den objektiv vorhandenen Eintrittsanspruch einer neuen Firma anzeigt, dargestellt durch dasjenige Marktsegment, das sie zunächst besetzen muss, bevor sie (relativ) abgesichert überleben kann.

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    Paper provided by Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) in its series Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Civil Society and Transnational Networks with number SP IV 2003-105.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbctn:spiv2003105
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