Fixed-term Employment and Fertility: Theory and Evidence from German Micro Data
In Germany, it has become conventional wisdom that the economic uncertainty associated fixed-term employment contracts prevents young couples from realizing their desire to have children. From a research perspective, it is however far from clear whether fixed-term contracts are the obstacle to family formation that the public a priori expect them to be. In this paper, we first develop a simple dynamic bargaining model that allows us to ask theoretically: under what conditions will couples choose to have children early on in life, postpone it to later in life, or decide to remain childless? And: to what extent does the economic uncertainty associated with holding fixed-term employment contract affect these choices? We obtain two theoretical predictions. On the one hand, job uncertainty at the beginning of women's employment careers causes couples to postpone parenthood. On the other hand, job uncertainty in women's mid-career lives causes couples to enter parenthood instead of remaining voluntarily childless. We bring these theoretical predictions to data from the German Socio-Economimc Panel (SOEP). Ordinary least squares and fixed-effects estimations show that, at the beginning of women's employment careers, holding a fixed-term employment contract and the probability of entering parenthood are negatively correlated. When considering women in their mid-career lives, holding a fixed-term contract has a positive impact on the probability of entering parenthood.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Angelika Tölke & Martin Diewald, 2003. "Insecurities in employment and occupational careers and their impact on the transition to fatherhood in Western Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 9(3), pages 41-68, September.
- Helmut Rainer & Geethanjali Selvaretnam & David Ulph, 2011.
"Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) in a model of fertility choice,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 1101-1132, July.
- Rainer, Helmut & Selvaretnam, Geethanjali & Ulph, David, 2011. "Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) in a model of fertility choice," Munich Reprints in Economics 19815, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Helmut Rainer & Geethanjali Selvaretnam & David Ulph, 2008. "Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) in a Model of Fertility Choice," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 200801, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
- Rainer, Helmut & Selvaretnam, Geetha & Ulph, David, 2008. "Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) in a Model of Fertility Choice," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-09, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Rainer, Helmut & Selvaretnam, Geethanjali & Ulph, David, 2008. "Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) in a model of fertility choice," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-02, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2001. "Job bust, baby bust?: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 505-521.
- Sara Rica & Amaia Iza, 2005. "Career Planning in Spain: Do Fixed-term Contracts Delay Marriage and Parenthood?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 49-73, November.
- Harvey Leibenstein, 1975. "The Economic Theory of Fertility Decline," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 1-31.
- Lundberg, S. & Pollak, R.A., 1991.
"Separate Spheres Bargaining and the Marriage Market,"
Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington
91-08, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Lundberg, Shelly & Pollak, Robert A, 1993. "Separate Spheres Bargaining and the Marriage Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 988-1010, December.
- Lundberg, S. & Pollak, R.A., 1991. "Separate Spheres Bargaining and the Marriage Market," Working Papers 91-08, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- David H. Autor, 2003. "Outsourcing at Will: The Contribution of Unjust Dismissal Doctrine to the Growth of Employment Outsourcing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-42, January.
- Weiss, Yoram & Willis, Robert J, 1985. "Children as Collective Goods and Divorce Settlements," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 268-92, July.
- Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79894. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.