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Are correlations constant over time? Application of the CC-TRIGt-test to return series from different asset classes

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  • Fischer, Matthias J.

Abstract

A new test for constant correlation is proposed. Based on the bivariate Student-t distribution, this test is derived as Lagrange multiplier (LM) test. Whereas most of the traditional tests (e.g. Jennrich, 1970, Tang, 1995 and Goetzmann, Li & Rouwenhorst, 2005) specify the unknown correlations as piecewise constant, our model-setup for the correlation coefficient is based on trigonometric functions. Applying this test to assets from different financial markets (stocks, exchange rates, metals) there is empirical evidence that many of the correlations vary over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Matthias J., 2007. "Are correlations constant over time? Application of the CC-TRIGt-test to return series from different asset classes," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-012, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2007-012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhou, Guofu, 1993. "Asset-Pricing Tests under Alternative Distributions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1927-1942, December.
    2. S. Kullback, 1967. "On Testing Correlation Matrices," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 16(1), pages 80-85, March.
    3. Kaplanis, Evi C., 1988. "Stability and forecasting of the comovement measures of international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-75, March.
    4. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    5. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    6. Kjersti Aas & Ingrid Hobaek Haff, 2006. "The Generalized Hyperbolic Skew Student's t-Distribution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 275-309.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lagrange multiplier test; constant correlation; trigonometric functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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