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Correlation dynamics between Asia-Pacifc, EU and US stock returns

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  • Stuart Hyde
  • Donal Bredin
  • Nghia Nguyen

Abstract

This paper investigates the correlation dynamics in the equity markets of 13 Asia-Pacific countries, Europe and the US using the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model (AG-DCC-GARCH) introduced by Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard (2006). We find significant variation in correlation between markets through time. Stocks exhibit asymmetries in conditional correlations in addition to conditional volatility. Yet asymmetry is less appar- ent in less integrated markets. The Asian crisis acts as a structural break, with correlations increasing markedly between crisis countries during this period though the bear market in the early 2000s is a more significant event for correlations with developed markets. Our findings also provide further evidence consistent with increasing global market integration. The documented asymmetries and correlation dynamics have important implications for international portfolio diversification and asset allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart Hyde & Donal Bredin & Nghia Nguyen, 2007. "Correlation dynamics between Asia-Pacifc, EU and US stock returns," Centre for Financial Markets Working Papers 10197/1168, Research Repository, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:rru:cfmwps:10197/1168
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    2. Doseong Kim & Yoon-Goo Lee & Isabel Ruiz, 2010. "Common Volatility: An Empirical Investigation of Closed-End Country Funds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 116-132, March.
    3. Franck Martin & Mai lan Nguyen, 2015. "Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of hedge fund strategy indices: what lessons about financial contagion ?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2110-2125.
    4. Saiful Izzuan Hussain & Steven Li, 2018. "The dynamic dependence between stock markets in the greater China economic area: a study based on extreme values and copulas," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 207-233, May.
    5. Aglietta, Michel & Brière, Marie & Rigot, Sandra & Signori, Ombretta, 2012. "Rehabilitating the role of active management for pension funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2565-2574.
    6. Takashi Miyazaki & Yuki Toyoshima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2012. "Exploring the dynamic interdependence between gold and other financial markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 37-50.
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    8. Alexander Eptas & Lawrence A. Leger, 2010. "A Mean-Variance Diagnosis of the Financial Crisis: International Diversification and Safe Havens," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Kin‐Yip Ho & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2012. "Dynamic Linkages among Financial Markets in the Greater China Region: A Multivariate Asymmetric Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 500-523, April.
    10. Sandoval, Leonidas & Franca, Italo De Paula, 2012. "Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 187-208.
    11. Yanhua Chen & Rosario N Mantegna & Athanasios A Pantelous & Konstantin M Zuev, 2018. "A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-40, March.
    12. Leonidas Sandoval Junior & Italo De Paula Franca, 2011. "Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis," Papers 1102.1339, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.
    13. Al Rahahleh, Naseem & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2017. "Co-movement measure of information transmission on international equity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 119-131.
    14. Cao, Guangxi & Xie, Wenhao, 2021. "The impact of the shutdown policy on the asymmetric interdependence structure and risk transmission of cryptocurrency and China’s financial market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Ballester, Laura & Díaz-Mendoza, Ana Carmen & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2019. "A systematic review of sovereign connectedness on emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 157-163.
    16. Zhou, Zhongbao & Lin, Ling & Li, Shuxian, 2018. "International stock market contagion: A CEEMDAN wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 333-352.
    17. Amanjot Singh & Manjit Singh, 2017. "Conditional Co-Movement And Dynamic Interactions: Us And Bric Equity Markets," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(212), pages 85-112, January -.
    18. Samitas, Aristeidis & Tsakalos, Ioannis, 2013. "How can a small country affect the European economy? The Greek contagion phenomenon," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 18-32.
    19. Wang, Kehluh & Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Huang, Szu-Wei, 2011. "The dynamic dependence between the Chinese market and other international stock markets: A time-varying copula approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 654-664, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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