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Does cascade behavior in information cascades reflect Bayesian updating? An experimental study

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  • Oberhammer, Clemens
  • Stiehler, Andreas

Abstract

Updating behavior in cascade experiments is usually investigated on the basis of urn prediction. But urn predictions alone can only provide a very rough information on individual updating behavior. Therefore, we implement a BDM mechanism. Subjects have to submit maximum prices that they are willing to pay to participate in the prediction game. This enables us to study subjects' probabilty formation less crudely. The results show that in many situations herding occurs in accordance with the standard BHW model but cannot be explained neither by rational Bayesian updating nor by heuristics identi...ed in former cascade experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Oberhammer, Clemens & Stiehler, Andreas, 2001. "Does cascade behavior in information cascades reflect Bayesian updating? An experimental study," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,32, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1997. "Information Cascades in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 847-862, December.
    2. Kraemer, Carlo & Noth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2006. "Information aggregation with costly information and random ordering: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 423-432, March.
    3. Huck, Steffen & Oechssler, Jorg, 2000. "Informational cascades in the laboratory: Do they occur for the right reasons?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 661-671, December.
    4. Frédéric KOESSLER & Anthony ZIEGELMEYER, 2000. "Tie-breaking Rules and Informational Cascades: A Note," Working Papers of BETA 2000-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2005. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1403-1426, December.
    2. Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jorg & Roider, Andreas, 2007. "Herding with and without payoff externalities -- an internet experiment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 391-415, April.
    3. Shunichiro Sasaki, 2004. "Signal Qualities, Order of Decisions, and Informational Cascades: Experimental Evidences," ISER Discussion Paper 0621, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    4. Lukas Meub & Till Proeger & Hendrik Hüning, 2017. "A comparison of endogenous and exogenous timing in a social learning experiment," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(1), pages 143-166, April.
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