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A class of Health-Jarrow-Morton models in which the unbiased expectations hypothesis holds

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  • Riedel, Frank

Abstract

The unbiased expectations hypothesis states that forward rates are unbiased estimates for future short rates. Cox, Ingersoll and Ross [1] conjectured that this hypothesis should be inconsistent with the absence of arbitrage possibilities. Using the framework of Heath, Jarrow and Morton [4] we show that this is not always the case. The unbiased expectations hypothesis together with the existence of an equivalent martingale measure is equivalent to a certain condition on the volatilities of the forward rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Riedel, Frank, 1997. "A class of Health-Jarrow-Morton models in which the unbiased expectations hypothesis holds," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,19, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199719
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
    2. McCulloch, J Huston, 1993. "A Reexamination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure: A Comment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 779-789, June.
    3. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Jamshidian, Farshid, 1989. " An Exact Bond Option Formula," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 205-209, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    term structure of interest rates; expectations hypotheses;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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