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As if or What? – Expectations and Optimization in a Simple Macroeconomic Environment

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  • Roos, Michael W. M.
  • Luhan, Wolfgang J.

Abstract

In this paper we report the results of a laboratory experiment, in which we observed the behavior of agents in a simple macroeconomic setting. The structure of the economy was only partially known to the players which is a realistic feature of our experiment. We investigate whether subjects manage to approach optimal behavior even if they lack important information. Furthermore, we analyze subjects' perceptions of the model and whether their behavior is consistent with their perceptions. The full information model predicts changes of employment correctly, but not the level of employment. In the aggregate, subjects have correct perceptions, although individual perceptions are biased. We finally show that deviations from the full information solution are due to optimization failures than than misperceptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Roos, Michael W. M. & Luhan, Wolfgang J., 2008. "As if or What? – Expectations and Optimization in a Simple Macroeconomic Environment," Ruhr Economic Papers 55, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:55
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael W. M. Roos & Wolfgang J. Luhan, 2013. "Information, Learning and Expectations in an Experimental Model Economy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 513-531, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Methodology; macroeconomic experiment; perceptions; optimization; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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