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Eurozone governance and the German demand and growth regimes, 1999-2024

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  • Campana, Juan Manuel
  • Hein, Eckhard

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the German demand and growth regimes from 1999 to 2024 within the framework of Eurozone macroeconomic governance for three sub-periods: 1999-2009, 2010-2020, and 2021-2024. Applying a national income and financial accounting decomposition approach, we find an extreme export-led mercantilist (ELM) regime during the first period, a moderated ELM regime in the second period, and a weakly export-led (WEL) regime in the third period. Also, the application of the Sraffian supermultiplier growth accounting approach indicates that exports were the primary autonomous growth driver, though with a declining trend over time. The examination of the structural underpinnings of Germany's export-led regime reveals that exports are mainly in capital goods and medium to high-technology products with a high income elasticity of demand, and thus rely on growth dynamics in the respective destination countries. The analysis of the German macroeconomic policy regime shaped by the Eurozone governance system finds for the first period a restrictive macroeconomic policy stance that suppressed domestic demand, making exports the primary growth driver. The second period saw a more expansionary stance, leading to a less extreme ELM regime. This trend continued into the third period, leading to a WEL regime with balanced domestic and external growth drivers. The paper concludes by advocating for a coordinated Eurozone macroeconomic policy mix that generates sufficient domestic demand and imports to balance the structurally shaped German export dynamics and to prevent regional and global current account imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Campana, Juan Manuel & Hein, Eckhard, 2024. "Eurozone governance and the German demand and growth regimes, 1999-2024," IPE Working Papers 244/2024, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ipewps:305270
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    19. Eckhard Hein, 2018. "Stagnation policy in the Eurozone and economic policy alternatives: A Steindlian/neo-Kaleckian perspective," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 44(3), pages 315-348.
    20. Juan Manuel Campana & João Emboava Vaz & Eckhard Hein & Benjamin Jungmann, 2024. "Demand and growth regimes of the BRICs countries – the national income and financial accounting decomposition approach and an autonomous demand-led growth perspective," Post-Print hal-05367613, HAL.
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    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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