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Update: Wo stehen die öffentlichen Finanzen in und nach der Corona-Krise?

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens

Abstract

Die Corona-Krise hat zu einem starken Konjunktureinbruch in Deutschland geführt. Nach einem zwischenzeitlichen konjunkturellen Aufholprozess führen der Anstieg der Fallzahlen und die damit einhergehenden erneuten Einschränkungen des öffentlichen Lebens im November wieder zu Beeinträchtigungen des wirtschaftlichen Lebens. Das weitere Infektionsgeschehen ist schwer abzuschätzen. Diese Unsicherheit überträgt sich auf den wirtschaftlichen Ausblick. In einem solchen Umfeld stehen Konjunkturprognosen großen Herausforderungen gegenüber und die Prognosezahlen müssen mit Vorsicht interpretiert werden. In diesem Gutachten wird anhand aktueller Prognosen, insbesondere der Ergebnisse der Steuerschätzung, die Lage der öffentlichen Finanzen diskutiert. Eine besondere Bedeutung hat dabei die Frage, wie die Finanzpolitik einen Pfad zur regulären Schuldenbremse gestalten kann, der den aktuellen Unwägbarkeiten Rechnung trägt. Nach jetzigem Stand sind dabei mittel- bis langfristig Konsolidierungsmaßnehmen unvermeidbar.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2020. "Update: Wo stehen die öffentlichen Finanzen in und nach der Corona-Krise?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 314949, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:314949
    Note: Kurzgutachten im Auftrag der Initiative Neue Soziale Marktwirtschaft
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    1. Clemens Fuest & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Marcel Fratzscher & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Claus Michelsen & Michael Hüther & Peter Bofinger & Lars P. Feld & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2019. "Schuldenbremse — Investitionshemmnis oder Vorbild für Europa? [Debt Brake — Investment Barrier or Role Model for Europe?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(5), pages 307-329, May.
    2. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2015. "National numerical fiscal rules: Not complied with, but still effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 67-81.
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    4. Heinz Gebhardt & Lars-H. Siemers, 2020. "Staatsfinanzen in der Corona-Krise: Günstige Bedingungen sichern Handlungsfähigkeit [The German Public Finances in the COVID-19 Pandemic]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 501-506, July.
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