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Der Lkw-Maut-Fahrleistungsindex: Ein nützlicher Frühindikator für die Industrieproduktion

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  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

Der Lkw-Fahrleistungsindex basiert auf der Mauterhebung, bei der der Lkw-Verkehr auf allen Bundesstraßen und Autobahnen erfasst wird. Da rund 80 Prozent der Warenbeförderung per Lkw erfolgt, steht der Fahrleistungsindex in enger Verbindung mit der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität, insbesondere mit der Industrieproduktion. Als Frühindikator ist die Fahrleistung zudem deshalb vielversprechend, da sie sehr frühzeitig nach Ende eines Berichtsmonats veröffentlicht wird. Die recht hohe Korrelation mit der Industrieproduktion (Ademmer et al. 2021: Kapitel 2.7.1; Askitas und Zimmermann 2013; Cox et al. 2018) spricht dafür, dass die Fahrleistung ein nützlicher Frühindikator ist. Die Prognosegüte des Indikators - auch im Vergleich zu anderen Frühindikatoren - wurde bislang jedoch kaum systematisch untersucht. Eine frühe Studie kommt zu dem Schluss, dass die Prognosegüte der Lkw-Fahrleistung nicht über die anderer Frühindikatoren, insbesondere Unternehmensbefragungen, hinausgeht (Döhrn 2011). Allerdings hat sich die Datenbasis seitdem deutlich verbreitert. Im Folgenden werden die Prognoseeigenschaften des monatlichen Lkw-Fahrleistungsindex für die Industrieproduktion untersucht.

Suggested Citation

  • Jannsen, Nils, 2023. "Der Lkw-Maut-Fahrleistungsindex: Ein nützlicher Frühindikator für die Industrieproduktion," Kiel Insight 2023.02, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:202302
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    1. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2020. "How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020," NBER Working Papers 27771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2013. "Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 299-306, July.
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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Winter 2023: Finanzpolitik in Turbulenzen - Gegenwind für die Erholung [German Economy in Winter 2023: Public budget under stress - Recovery faces headwinds]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 110, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2023: Konjunktur tastet sich aus der Krise [German Economy in Summer 2023: Crawling out of the crisis]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Konjunktur Deutschland; Deutschland; Arbeitsmarkt;
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