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Auswirkungen der abschlagsfreien Rente mit 63 und des Mindestlohns auf das Produktionspotenzial

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  • Groll, Dominik

Abstract

Nach den Plänen der Großen Koalition wird zum 1. Juli 2014 das Alter, ab dem Versicherte mit mindestens 45 Beitragsjahren abschlagsfrei in Rente gehen können, von 65 auf 63 verringert. Außerdem soll zum 1. Januar 2015 ein flächendeckender, gesetzlicher Mindestlohn von 8,50 Euro brutto je Stunde eingeführt werden. Beide Maßnahmen reduzieren das potenzielle Arbeitsvolumen und somit das Produktionspotenzial in Deutschland. Während die abschlagsfreie Rente das potenzielle Arbeitsvolumen über eine Verringerung der Partizipationsrate von älteren Arbeitnehmern beeinflusst, wirkt der Mindestlohn über eine Erhöhung der strukturellen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU). Im Folgenden werden die Potenzialeffekte beider Maßnahmen abgeschätzt.

Suggested Citation

  • Groll, Dominik, 2014. "Auswirkungen der abschlagsfreien Rente mit 63 und des Mindestlohns auf das Produktionspotenzial," Kiel Insight 2014.4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:20144
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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan, 2013. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2013," Kiel Discussion Papers 530/531, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Neumark, David & Wascher, William L., 2007. "Minimum Wages and Employment," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 3(1–2), pages 1-182, March.
    3. Karl Brenke, 2014. "Mindestlohn: Zahl der anspruchsberechtigten Arbeitnehmer wird weit unter fünf Millionen liegen," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(5), pages 71-77.
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