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Ist die Arbeitslosenquote ein guter Anker für die "forward guidance" der Federal Reserve?

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  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

Die Federal Reserve (Fed) hat ihre zukünftige Geldpolitik eng an die Entwicklung der Arbeitslosenquote ausgerichtet. Konkret hat sie angekündigt, ihren Leitzins mindestens so lange nahe null zu belassen, wie die Arbeitslosenquote über 6,5 Prozent liegt, ihre eigenen Inflationsprognosen für ein bis zwei Jahre 2,5 Prozent nicht überschreiten und die Inflationserwartungen fest verankert sind. Ferner hat sie angekündigt, mit den monatlichen Anleihekäufen so lange fortzufahren, bis eine merkliche Besserung am Arbeitsmarkt eingetreten ist; diese Aussage wird derzeit dahingehend interpretiert, dass die Anleihekäufe demnächst reduziert werden und schließlich eingestellt werden, wenn die Arbeitslosenquote auf 7 Prozent gesunken ist. Durch diese "forward guidance" erhofft sich die Fed, die Zinsen am langen Ende weiter zu drücken und die Wirkung ihrer Politik zu erhöhen.

Suggested Citation

  • Jannsen, Nils, 2013. "Ist die Arbeitslosenquote ein guter Anker für die "forward guidance" der Federal Reserve?," Kiel Insight 2013.13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201313
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2013. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2013," Kiel Discussion Papers 526/527, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2011. "Ist die Geldpolitik in den Vereinigten Staaten zu expansiv ausgerichtet?," Kiel Insight 2011.2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2011. "Ist die Geldpolitik in den USA zu expansiv?," Kiel Policy Brief 26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
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