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Zur Gefahr einer Immobilienpreisblase in Deutschland

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  • Kooths, Stefan

Abstract

Das für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft nun schon über mehrere Jahre zu expansive monetäre Umfeld und die zuletzt kräftig anziehende Wohnungsbautätigkeit haben verstärkt Befürchtungen über mögliche Preisübertreibungen auf den hiesigen Märkten für Wohnimmobilien aufkommen lassen. Eine solche Hauspreisblase wäre insbesondere deshalb schädlich, weil sie typischerweise mit erheblichen realwirtschaftlichen Fehlallokationen in Form unrentabler Bauprojekte und einer übermäßigen Kapazitätserweiterung in der Bauwirtschaft einherginge. Wie die Beispiele Spaniens oder Irlands zeigen, können die dann notwendigen Korrekturprozesse mit erheblichen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Belastungen verbunden sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Kooths, Stefan, 2012. "Zur Gefahr einer Immobilienpreisblase in Deutschland," Kiel Insight 2012.4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:20124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nils Jannsen, 2010. "National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(2), pages 175-206.
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "The ugly and the bad: banking and housing crises strangle output permanently, ordinary recessions do not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Henger, Ralph & Just, Tobias & Voigtländer, Michael, 2011. "Tobins q und die Bautätigkeit im deutschen Immobiliensektor," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 38(3), pages 31-44.
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