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Sinkende Immobilienpreise in China: Gefahr für die Weltkonjunktur?

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens

Abstract

In den Jahren vor der Finanzkrise und zeitweise darüber hinaus sind die Immobilienpreise in China rasant gestiegen. In den jüngsten Monaten zeichnet sich eine deutliche Verlangsamung des Preisanstiegs ab. In einigen Regionen sind die Preise real bereits gesunken, und viele Beobachter halten einen Einbruch der Immobilienpreise für wahrscheinlich. Die Erfahrungen mit Immobilienkrisen in vielen Industrieländern im Vorlauf und während der Großen Rezession werfen die Frage auf, ob eine Immobilienkrise in China die konjunkturelle Entwicklung des Landes wie der der Weltwirtschaft ähnlich negativ beeinflussen wird. Mehrere Transmissionskanäle sind denkbar, durch sich Immobilienkrisen auf die Konjunktur auswirken. Zum einen dürfte direkt die Bautätigkeit beeinträchtigt werde, ferner wird häufig diskutiert, dass es durch sinkende Immobilienpreise zu einem negativen Vermögenseffekt kommt, der den privaten Konsum belasten kann. Schließlich können sich Immobilienkrisen negativ auf den Bankensektor auswirken, da Immobilien häufig als Sicherheiten für Kredite genutzt werden und sinkende Immobilienpreise die Risiken im Bankensektor erhöhen. Insbesondere der letztgenannte Kanal dürfte in vielen Immobilienkrisen der Vergangenheit eine besondere Rolle gespielt haben.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2011. "Sinkende Immobilienpreise in China: Gefahr für die Weltkonjunktur?," Kiel Insight 2011.22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Nils Jannsen, 2013. "Costs Of Housing Crises: International Evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 299-313, October.
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    3. Nils Jannsen, 2010. "National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(2), pages 175-206.
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