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Zur Methode der Potentialschätzung

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  • Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) (Ed.)

Abstract

Die Berechnung des Produktionspotentials nach der Kommissionsmethodea beruht auf einer Cobb-Douglas-Produktionsfunktion mit den Produktionsfaktoren Arbeit und Kapital, wobei abnehmende partielle Grenzproduktivitäten unterstellt werden. Die dritte Komponente der Cobb-Douglas-Produktionsfunktion ist die Totale Faktorproduktivität (TFP), welche den Teil des Produktionspotentials erklärt, der sich nicht aus dem Einsatz der Produktionsfaktoren ergibt. In der Entwicklung der Totalen Faktorproduktivität spiegelt sich der technologische Fortschritt wider. Für die partiellen Produktionselastizitäten der Einsatzfaktoren wird angenommen, dass sie zeitlich konstant sind und sich zu eins addieren. Diese Elastizitäten sind von der EU-Kommission vorgegeben und belaufen sich auf 0,65 für den Faktor Arbeit und 0,35 für den Kapitaleinsatz.

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  • Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) (Ed.), 2011. "Zur Methode der Potentialschätzung," Kiel Insight 2011.10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201110
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    1. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
    3. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388.
    4. Christophe Planas & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "Does capacity utilisation help estimating the TFP cycle?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 410, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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