IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/hohrsw/201601.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Die Marktrisikoprämie des DAX nach dem Dividenden- und Gewinnwachstumsmodell von Fama/French (2002)

Author

Listed:
  • Hachmeister, Dirk
  • Puchstein, Kerstin
  • Seidler, Patrick

Abstract

Die Marktrisikoprämie ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen in der Finanzwissenschaft, da sie elementarer Bestandteil der Kapitalkostenberechnung nach dem CAPM-Modell ist. Allerdings ist die Höhe der Marktrisikoprämie auch ein Politikum, da diese am Markt nicht direkt beobachtbar ist und lediglich auf Basis verschiedener Verfahren und Zeitreihen geschätzt werden kann. Die nicht nur in der deutschen Bewertungspraxis beliebte historische Methode hat dabei den Nachteil, dass sie maßgeblich von der Wahl des zugrundeliegenden Beobachtungszeitraums und zudem von den hohen Kurssteigerungen der letzten 30 Jahre bestimmt werden. Als mögliche Alternative wird im Folgenden ein Ansatz von Fama und French auf den DAX übertragen, bei dem die Marktrisikoprämie mithilfe fundamentaler Unternehmensdaten geschätzt wird. Das Dividenden- und das Gewinnwachstumsmodell nach Fama und French schätzt die erwartete Marktrisikoprämie auf Basis der historisch beobachteten Dividendenrendite sowie des Dividenden- bzw. Gewinnwachstums der einzelnen im Marktindex erfassten Unternehmen.

Suggested Citation

  • Hachmeister, Dirk & Puchstein, Kerstin & Seidler, Patrick, 2016. "Die Marktrisikoprämie des DAX nach dem Dividenden- und Gewinnwachstumsmodell von Fama/French (2002)," Hohenheimer Schriften: Rechnungswesen - Steuern - Wirtschaftsprüfung 2016-01, University of Hohenheim, Department of Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hohrsw:201601
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/128640/1/848548671.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 501-537, October.
    2. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, April.
    3. Roger G. Ibbotson & Peng Chen, 2003. "Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm354, Yale School of Management.
    4. Andrew Vivian, 2007. "The Equity Premium: 100 Years of Empirical Evidence from the UK," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0711, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
    5. Oliver Gloede & Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "Griechenlands Krise: Das währungspolitische Trilemma im Euroraum," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 90(3), pages 172-177, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van Ewijk, Casper & de Groot, Henri L.F. & Santing, A.J. (Coos), 2012. "A meta-analysis of the equity premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 819-830.
    2. Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "Are calculated betas good for anything?," IESE Research Papers D/555, IESE Business School.
    3. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
    4. Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2017. "Equity prices and fundamentals: a DDM–APT mixed approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 661-695, October.
    5. Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Explained by GDP Growth and Consistent with Portfolio Insurance," Finance 0311004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mark Freeman & Ben Groom, 2015. "Using equity premium survey data to estimate future wealth," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 665-693, November.
    7. Ritter, Jay R., 2005. "Economic growth and equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 489-503, November.
    8. Eduardo Walker, 2016. "Cost of Capital in Emerging Markets: Bridging Gaps between Theory and Practice," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 53(1), pages 111-147, December.
    9. Samih Antoine Azar, 2008. "Conditional confidence intervals for the equity premium and other rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1085-1089.
    10. Roelof Salomons, 2008. "A Theoretical And Practical Perspective On The Equity Risk Premium," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 299-329, April.
    11. Efstathios Avdis & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the equity premium," NBER Working Papers 19684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Breuer, Wolfgang & Gürtler, Marc, 2010. "Implied rates of return, the discount rate effect, and market risk premia," Working Papers IF33V3, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    13. Fernandez, Pablo & Aguirreamalloa, Javier & Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The equity premium puzzle: High required equity premium, undervaluation and self fulfilling prophecy," IESE Research Papers D/821, IESE Business School.
    14. M. Levy, 2010. "Loss aversion and the price of risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 1009-1022.
    15. Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2003. "A General Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Return," Finance 0311005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2004.
    16. Andrew Vivian, 2007. "The UK Equity Premium: 1901-2004," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9-10), pages 1496-1527.
    17. Fernandez, Pablo, 2005. "La prima de riesgo del mercado (market risk premium)," IESE Research Papers D/585, IESE Business School.
    18. Avdis, Efstathios & Wachter, Jessica A., 2017. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 589-609.
    19. Kaustia, Markku & Lehtoranta, Antti & Puttonen, Vesa, 2013. "Does sophistication affect long-term return expectations? Evidence from financial advisers' exam scores," SAFE Working Paper Series 3, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    20. Buranavityawut, Nonthipoth & Freeman, Mark C. & Freeman, Nisih, 2006. "Has the equity premium been low for 40 years?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unternehmensbewertung; Steuerbemessungsfunktion; Fair Market Value; Erbschaftsteuer; Rechtsprechung; USA;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hohrsw:201601. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibhohde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.