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Implied rates of return, the discount rate effect, and market risk premia

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  • Breuer, Wolfgang
  • Gürtler, Marc

Abstract

We show analytically under quite general conditions that implied rates of return based on analysts' earnings forecasts are only a downward biased estimator for future expected one-period returns and therefore not suited for computing market risk premia. The extent of this bias is substantial as verified by a bootstrap approach. We present an alternative estimation equation for future expected one-period returns based on current and past implied rates of return that is superior to simple estimators based on historical returns. The reason for this superiority is a lower variance of estimation results and not the circumvention of the discount rate effect typically stated as a major problem of estimators based on historical return realizations. The superiority of this new approach for portfolio selection purposes is verified numerically for our bootstrap environment and empirically for real capital market data.

Suggested Citation

  • Breuer, Wolfgang & Gürtler, Marc, 2010. "Implied rates of return, the discount rate effect, and market risk premia," Working Papers IF33V3, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tbsifw:if33v3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ian Cooper, 1996. "Arithmetic versus geometric mean estimators: Setting discount rates for capital budgeting," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 2(2), pages 157-167.
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    5. Kan, Raymond & Zhou, Guofu, 2007. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(03), pages 621-656, September.
    6. John Capstaff & Krishna Paudyal & William Rees, 2001. "A Comparative Analysis of Earnings Forecasts in Europe," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5-6), pages 531-562.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
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    9. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
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    14. repec:bla:joares:v:28:y:1990:i:2:p:409-417 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    analysts' earnings forecasts; discount rate effect; equity premium puzzle; implied rate of return;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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