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An Ex-Ante Assessment on Poverty and Cash Transfer Benefits in Viet Nam under the Covid-19 Pandemic


  • Giang, Long Thanh
  • Kikkawa, Aiko
  • Nguyen, Cuong Viet


Using household data from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) and the sector-specific growth and remittance inflow projections by Asian Development Bank (ADB), this study first estimated the COVID-19 pandemic on income and poverty status of the Vietnamese households, and then simulated the impact of cash transfer programs by the government of Vietnam on the income and poverty status of households. Our simulations suggest that COVID-19 leads to substantial reduction in household's per-capita income, and results in additional 1.7 million poor people. The cash transfers would be pro-poor and helps bring about 1.2 million people out of poverty. The transfers would be particularly pro-poor for ethnic minority and rural persons and those working in severely affected economic sectors. Based on the findings, we discussed various policies to implement appropriate measures to help households cope with adverse economic impact of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Giang, Long Thanh & Kikkawa, Aiko & Nguyen, Cuong Viet, 2021. "An Ex-Ante Assessment on Poverty and Cash Transfer Benefits in Viet Nam under the Covid-19 Pandemic," GLO Discussion Paper Series 864, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:864

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Andy Sumner & Christopher Hoy & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2020. "Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Abdul Abiad & Mia Arao & Editha Lavina & Reizle Platitas & Jesson Pagaduan & Christian Jabagat, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on developing Asian economies: The role of outbreak severity, containment stringency, and mobility declines," Vox eBook Chapters, in: Simeon Djankov & Ugo Panizza (ed.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 86-99, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Dang, Hai-Anh & Giang, Long T., 2020. "Turning Vietnam's COVID-19 Success into Economic Recovery: A Job-Focused Analysis of Individual Assessments on Their Finance and the Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 13315, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Djankov, Simeon & Panizza, Ugo (ed.), 2020. "COVID-19 in Developing Economies," Vox eBooks, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number p330.
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    More about this item


    COVID-19; poverty; income; microsimulation; Vietnam;
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