IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fzgdps/6.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return

Author

Listed:
  • Heidler, Matthias
  • Raffelhüschen, Bernd

Abstract

In this paper we analyze exemplarily the volatility of the internal rates of return of the German pension system over the life-cycle of an individual born in 1957. The outcome is compared to an alternative defined-contribution or defined-benefit policy. Based on the actual data, our results show the volatility of the internal rate of return to be significantly higher under the actual policy. We furthermore find that the sustainable internal rates of return are close to zero for the youngest male cohorts and positive for females for optimistic growth scenarios. In more realistic scenarios things turn worse.

Suggested Citation

  • Heidler, Matthias & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2005. "How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return," FZG Discussion Papers 6, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/46213/1/662495691.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus Theorie und Evidenz," MEA discussion paper series 05069, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. John McHale, 2001. "The Risk of Social Security Benefit-Rule Changes: Some International Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 247-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Christoph Borgmann & Matthias Heidler, 2003. "Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 1021, CESifo.
    4. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    5. repec:bla:scandj:v:94:y:1992:i:2:p:319-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number camp01-1.
    7. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus : Theorie und Evidenz," Papers 05-05, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    8. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:bla:scandj:v:94:y:1992:i:2:p:303-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Axel Börsch‐Supan, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(4), pages 449-469, November.
    11. David Bradford, 1991. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad91-1.
    12. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Borgmann & Matthias Heidler, 2007. "Volatility of Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit-Rule Changes in Germany," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 63(1), pages 83-106, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heidler, Matthias & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2005. "How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return," Discussion Papers 138, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    2. Christoph Borgmann & Matthias Heidler, 2003. "Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 1021, CESifo.
    3. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    4. Feist, Karen & Krimmer, Pascal & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2001. "Intergenerative Effekte einer lebenszyklusorientierten Einkommensteuerreform: Die Einfachsteuer des Heidelberger Steuerkreises," Discussion Papers 98, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    5. Krimmer, Pascal & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2003. "Intergenerative Umverteilung und Wachstumsimpulse der Steuerreformen 1999 bis 2005: Die Perspektive der Generationenbilanz," Discussion Papers 105, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    6. Benz, Ulrich & Fetzer, Stefan, 2004. "Indicators for Measuring Fiscal Sustainability: A Comparative Application of the OECD-Method and Generational Accounting," Discussion Papers 118, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    7. Ehrentraut, Oliver & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2003. "Die Rentenversicherung unter Reformdruck: Ein Drama in drei Akten," Discussion Papers 109, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    8. Cristophe Borgmann & Pascal Krimmer & Bernd Raffelhüshen, 2001. "Rentenreformen 1998–2001: Eine (vorläufige) Bestandsaufnahme," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(3), pages 319-334, August.
    9. Marco Bassetto, 2009. "The Research Agenda: Marco Bassetto on the Quantitative Evaluation of Fiscal Policy Rules," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), April.
    10. Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Hagist, Christian & Moog, Stefan & Vatter, Johannes, 2009. "Ehrbare Staaten? Die deutsche Generationenbilanz im internationalen Vergleich," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 107, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    11. Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Seuffert, Stefan, 2020. "Ehrbarer Staat? Wege und Irrwege der Rentenpolitik im Lichte der Generationenbilanz," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 148, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    12. Martin Larch & João Nogueira Martins, 2007. "Fiscal indicators - Proceedings of the the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Workshop held on 22 September 2006 in Brussels," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 297, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2001. "Generational accounting: Quo vadis?," Discussion Papers 95, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    14. Metzger, Christoph, 2016. "The German statutory pension scheme: Balance sheet, cross-sectional internal rates of return and implicit tax rates," FZG Discussion Papers 63, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    15. Stefan Moog & Christoph Müller, 2011. "Zur Erhöhung der Regelaltersgrenze in Deutschland: eine internationale Perspektive," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(2), pages 33-51.
    16. Christian vom Lehn & Eric Fisher & Aspen Gorry, 2018. "Male Labor Supply and Generational Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 121-149, April.
    17. Timothy C. Irwin, 2015. "Defining The Government'S Debt And Deficit," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 711-732, September.
    18. Alan J. Auerbach & Young Jun Chun & Ilho Yoo, 2005. "The Fiscal Burden of Korean Reunification: A Generational Accounting Approach," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 62-97, March.
    19. Schultis Sebastian & Seuffert Stefan & Stramka Sebastian, 2024. "Der demografische Wandel im Wandel," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 104(4), pages 269-274, April.
    20. Bahnsen, Lewe & Manthei, Gerrit & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2017. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2017: Nachhaltigkeit im Klammergriff des Wahlkampfes," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 138, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk; internal rate of return; sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iffrede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.