How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return
In this paper we analyze exemplarily the volatility of the internal rates of return of the German pension system over the life-cycle of an individual born in 1957. The outcome is compared to an alternative defined-contribution or defined-benefit policy. Based on the actual data, our results show the volatility of the internal rate of return to be significantly higher under the actual policy. We furthermore find that the sustainable internal rates of return are close to zero for the youngest male cohorts and positive for females for optimistic growth scenarios. In more realistic scenarios things turn worse.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: +49 +761 / 203 2301|
Phone: +49 +761 / 203 2301
Fax: +49 +761 / 203 2303
Web page: http://www.generationenvertraege.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991.
"Generational accounting: a new approach for understanding the effects of fiscal policy on saving,"
9107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 303-18.
- David Bradford, 1991. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad91-1, September.
- John McHale, 1999.
"The Risk of Social Security Benefit Rule Changes: Some International Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
7031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John McHale, 2001. "The Risk of Social Security Benefit-Rule Changes: Some International Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 247-290 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number camp01-1, September.
- Axel BÃ¶rsch-Supan, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus Theorie und Evidenz," MEA discussion paper series 05069, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Axel Börsch-Supan, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(4), pages 449-469, November.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus : Theorie und Evidenz," Papers 05-05, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Christoph Borgmann & Matthias Heidler, 2003. "Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 1021, CESifo Group Munich.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
- Muellbauer, John, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving: Comment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 319-22.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.