How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return
In this paper we analyze exemplarily the volatility of the internal rates of return of the German pension system over the life-cycle of an individual born in 1957. The outcome is compared to an alternative defined-contribution or defined-benefit policy. Based on the actual data, our resultsshow the volatility of the internal rate of return to be significantly higherunder the actual policy. We furthermore find that the sustainable internalrates of return are close to zero for the youngest male cohorts and posi-tive for females for optimistic growth scenarios. In more realistic scenariosthings turn worse.
|Date of creation:||2005|
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- Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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NBER Working Papers
7031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John McHale, 2001. "The Risk of Social Security Benefit-Rule Changes: Some International Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 247-290 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Axel Börsch-Supan, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(4), pages 449-469, November.
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