How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return
In this paper we analyze exemplarily the volatility of the internal rates of return of the German pension system over the life-cycle of an individual born in 1957. The outcome is compared to an alternative defined-contribution or defined-benefit policy. Based on the actual data, our resultsshow the volatility of the internal rate of return to be significantly higherunder the actual policy. We furthermore find that the sustainable internalrates of return are close to zero for the youngest male cohorts and posi-tive for females for optimistic growth scenarios. In more realistic scenariosthings turn worse.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 +761 / 203 2301
Fax: +49 +761 / 203 2303
Web page: http://www.fiwi1.uni-freiburg.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Axel Börsch-Supan, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus Theorie und Evidenz," MEA discussion paper series 05069, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- David Bradford, 1991. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad91-1, December.
- Axel Börsch-Supan, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(4), pages 449-469, November.
- John McHale, 2001.
"The Risk of Social Security Benefit-Rule Changes: Some International Evidence,"
in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 247-290
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John McHale, 1999. "The Risk of Social Security Benefit Rule Changes: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
- Jochen Michaelis & Michael Pflüger, 2000. "The impact of tax reforms on unemployment in a SMOPEC," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 72(2), pages 175-201, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:alufin:138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.