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The "Armey Curve" in Bulgaria (2000-18): Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results

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  • Vasilev, Aleksandar

Abstract

In this paper we provide a theoretical basis for the so-called "Armey curve," the inverted U-shape relationship between the level of government purchases and GDP growth, named after Armey (1995). We use an otherwise standard Keynesian model, augmented with a quadratic relationship between investment and lagged government expenditure, which was documented empirically. This modelling approach is a useful shortcut that aims to capture the common link shared by both variables, namely their dependence on the real interest rate, as suggested also by the extended static IS-LM model. This resulting dynamic relationship is a newly-documented stylized fact, at least in Bulgarian data for the period 2000-2018, and the source in the extended Keynesian model that generates an Armey curve for Bulgaria.

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  • Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2019. "The "Armey Curve" in Bulgaria (2000-18): Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results," EconStor Preprints 194183, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:194183
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Armey curve; GDP growth; government purchases; Bulgaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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