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Impact of Ageing on Curative Health Care Workforce in Selected EU Countries

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  • Schulz, Erika
  • Coda Moscarola, Flavia
  • Golinowska, Stanisława
  • Radvansky, Marek
  • Geyer, Johannes

Abstract

Population ageing combined with a shrinking potential workforce are main factors influencing future socio-economic development and the labour market. This paper has the objective to show the impact of population change on one important sector of the economy, the health care market. As the need for health care services increases with age, the population ageing is expected to have a direct influence on the demand for services and the workforce needed. The shrinking labour force and the currently high share of elderly health professionals will have an impact of the future supply of health workforce. Based on the NEUJOBS demographic scenarios tough and friendly and age- and gender specific utilization rates the changes in the health workforce needed are calculated. Changes in labour supply and employment are shown using the results of the econometric model NEMESIS. In both scenario a decline in population size and an ageing of the population is expected. In the friendly scenario the demand for health care services is expected to increase, although the population size declines. The population ageing has a higher effect on the demand as the shrinking population size. In the tough scenario the significant decline in population dominates the demand for health workforce. Due to the demographic change also a decline in labour supply is calculated, while the employment in health care is estimated to increase in both scenarios. In 2025, the estimated employment is higher than the demand for health workforce. But on the demand side the calculations show only the pure demographic effect. Due to data restrictions we could not take into account the technological medical progress, changes in health utilization behaviour or changes in health status of the population. All these factor have an influence on the future health workforce demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Schulz, Erika & Coda Moscarola, Flavia & Golinowska, Stanisława & Radvansky, Marek & Geyer, Johannes, 2013. "Impact of Ageing on Curative Health Care Workforce in Selected EU Countries," EconStor Preprints 128601, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:128601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Doorslaer, Eddy van & Wagstaff, Adam & Rutten, Frans (ed.), 1992. "Equity in the Finance and Delivery of Health Care: An International Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192622914.
    2. Schulz, Erika, 2013. "Employment in Health and Long-Term Care Sector in European Countries," EconStor Preprints 128598, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Schulz, Erika, 2013. "Impact of Ageing on Curative Health Care Workforce : Country Report Germany," EconStor Preprints 128599, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Sirven, Nicolas & Or, Zeynep, 2010. "Disparities in Regular Health Care Utilisation in Europe," MEA discussion paper series 10231, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    5. van Doorslaer, Eddy & Wagstaff, Adam, 1992. "Equity in the delivery of health care: some international comparisons," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 389-411, December.
    6. Schulz, Erika, 2013. "Impact of Ageing on Curative Health Care Workforce : Country Report Denmark," EconStor Preprints 128600, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marek Radvansky, 2014. "Effects of demographic changes on hospital workforce in European countries," EcoMod2014 7198, EcoMod.
    2. Pantelidis, Pantelis & Vozikis, Athanassios & Meggouli, Eirini, 2019. "Demand for primary healthcare services in Greece based on general practice prescribing model," MPRA Paper 92101, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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