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OCA theory and EMU Eastern enlargement: An empirical application

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  • Weimann, Marco

Abstract

The accession of several Central and Eastern European Countries to Euroland is likely to be realised within the next years. Some studies aim at analysing the suitability of these Euro aspirants for currency union with EMU by evaluating the related macroeconomic costs. Still, they are prone to the Lucas critique since they do not consider endogeneity of the relevant criteria. We build on methodologies developed with regard to the theory of optimum currency areas in the context of present EMU and use a structural VAR approach to evaluate EMU suitability of the candidate countries. To correct for the widespread flaw of previous studies we use lagged time series to account for endogeneities. An evaluation of the changing country characteristics within the process of integration in Western Europe confirms the importance of this approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Weimann, Marco, 2003. "OCA theory and EMU Eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Research Notes 8, Deutsche Bank Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:8
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    4. Paul De Grauwe & Wim Vanhaverbeke, 2014. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 8, pages 231-252, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Todorov, 2012. "European Economic Integration Theories and Criteria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 131-152.
    2. Gilson, Nathalie alias Natacha & Labondance, Fabien, 2013. "Synchronisation des chocs d’offre et de demande en Europe – Un après-euro ou une après-crise des subprimes ?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 155-189, Septembre.
    3. Roman Horvath, 2005. "Exchange rate variability, pressures and optimum currency area criteria: some empirical evidence from the 1990s," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 919-922.
    4. Kozmenko, Serhiy & Savchenko, Taras & Kazarinov, Dmytro, 2012. "Assessment of financial convergence of Ukraine with the CIS countries and the European Union," MPRA Paper 50782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kalina Durova, 2019. "Are the New Member States Ready to Join the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Perspective," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 72-95.
    6. Rafal Warzala, 2017. "Business Cycles Variability in Polish Regions in the Years 2000–2016," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 177-189.
    7. Nenad Stanisic, 2013. "Convergence between the business cycles of Central and Eastern European countries and the Euro area," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 63-74, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    OCA; EMU; shock analysis; Eastern enlargement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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