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Wachstumsperspektiven im Strukturwandel: Neue Branchencluster entstehen

Author

Listed:
  • Ehmer, Philipp
  • Gottschalk, Felix

Abstract

Diese Arbeit thematisiert den Strukturwandel in Deutschland. Bei der klassischen Darstellung anhand der drei Wirtschaftssektoren Landwirtschaft/Industrie/Dienstleistung gehen wichtige Details verloren. Denn Tertiarisierung bedeutet nicht automatisch, dass alle Dienstleistungen auf einem aufstrebenden Ast sind und alle Industriebranchen an Bedeutung verlieren. Mittels einer multivariaten Clusteranalyse teilen wir die Wirtschaft anhand von Strukturmerkmalen von Branchen in aussagekräftige Abschnitte ein. Grundlage für die Neueinteilung sind wichtige Bestimmungsfaktoren der Wachstumstheorie und des Strukturwandels, nämlich die Kapital-, IKT-, Export-, Outsourcing-, Forschungs- und Wissensintensität der Wirtschaftszweige. Die identifizierten Branchencluster überwinden die Grenzen des Drei-Sektoren-Modells und setzen sich sowohl aus Industrie- als auch Dienstleistungsbranchen zusammen. Aufgrund vergleichbarer Strukturmerkmale folgen sie ähnlichen Wachstumstrends und dürften auf exogene Schocks in ähnlicher Weise reagieren. Wir können so Aussagen zum künftigen Strukturwandel und zu den Aussichten der einzelnen Cluster treffen. Nach unseren Ergebnissen ist der Ausblick vor allem für ein forschungs- und wissensintensives Industriecluster und ein Cluster bestehend aus den unternehmensnahen Dienstleistungen, dem Finanzwesen und den Versorgen günstig. Zukunftsbranchen stammen also nicht allein aus dem Dienstleistungssektor, daher sollte die Wachstumsdiskussion nicht einseitig geführt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehmer, Philipp & Gottschalk, Felix, 2010. "Wachstumsperspektiven im Strukturwandel: Neue Branchencluster entstehen," Research Notes 34, Deutsche Bank Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:34
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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