The American consumer: Reforming, or just resting?
American households have received a triple dose of bad news since the beginning of the current recession: The greatest collapse in asset values since the Great Depression, a sharp tightening in credit availability, and a large increase in unemployment risk. We present measures of the size of these shocks and discuss what a benchmark theory says about their immediate and ultimate consequences. We then provide a forecast based on a simple empirical model that captures the effects of wealth shocks and unemployment fears. Our short-term forecast calls for somewhat weaker spending, and somewhat higher saving rates, than the Consensus survey of macroeconomic forecasters. Over the longer term, our best guess is that the personal saving rate will eventually approach the levels that preceded period of financial liberalization that began in the late 1970s.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: House of Finance, Grüneburgplatz 1, HPF H5, D-60323 Frankfurt am Main|
Phone: +49 (0)69 798-30050
Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077
Web page: http://www.ifk-cfs.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carroll, Christopher D. & Slacalek, Jirka & Sommer, Martin, 2008.
"International evidence on sticky consumption growth,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2008/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2011. "International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1135-1145, November.
- Carroll, Christopher D. & Slacalek, Jiri & Sommer, Martin, 2008. "International evidence on sticky consumption growth," Working Paper Series 0886, European Central Bank.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2008. "International Evidence On Sticky Consumption Growth," Economics Working Paper Archive 542, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2008. "International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth," NBER Working Papers 13876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200912. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.