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A single composite financial stress indicator and its real impact in the euro area

  • Islami, Mevlud
  • Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol
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    In this paper, we construct a single composite financial stress indicator (FSI) which aims to predict developments in the real economy in the euro area. Our FSI was shown to perform better than the Euro STOXX 50 volatility index for the recent banking crisis and the euro-area sovereign debt crisis and to be able to serve as an early warning indicator for negative impacts of financial stress on the real economy.

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    Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 31/2013.

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    Date of creation: 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:312013
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    1. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2004. "Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 20, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
    2. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    3. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
    4. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2012. "The changing macroeconomic response to stock market volatility shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-293.
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