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Life cycle consumption and portfolio choice under real interest rate risk

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  • Fischer, Marcel
  • Jankowski, Natascha

Abstract

We set up a life cycle model with real interest rate risk to demonstrate that real interest rates have implications for optimal household consumption and investments. Lower interest rates lead to higher optimal stock investments and lower consumption. Ignoring the time-varying nature of real interest rates leads to overconsumption and underinvestment into stocks when interest rates are high and, ultimately, substantial welfare costs. Being exposed to an extended period of low interest rates even leads to substantial welfare losses when behaving optimally - particularly when being exposed to it at around retirement age when savings peak.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Marcel & Jankowski, Natascha, 2025. "Life cycle consumption and portfolio choice under real interest rate risk," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 291, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:arqudp:323203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lamla, Michael J. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2019. "Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-38.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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