Rebels, Conformists, Contrarians And Momentum Traders
We consider investing in a noisy market with incorrect beliefs about predictability. Two types of agents use subjective models to optimize their portfolios - "conformists" who happen to believe in the self-fulfilling market consensus and "rebels" who have wrong beliefs. We compare the agents' dynamic trading and their empirically observable investment performance. An agent who believes in log-normality is always a contrarian trader, who buys more shares after the price goes down, and sells shares when the price goes up. In contrast, an agent who believes in price predictability acts as a momentum trader, who buys more shares after the price goes up, for a range of subjective market mis-pricings. We show th
|Date of creation:||01 Apr 2000|
|Date of revision:||01 Jan 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://icf.som.yale.edu/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987.
"Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications,"
NBER Working Papers
2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
- Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 63-91, March.
- He, Hua & Leland, Hayne, 1993. "On Equilibrium Asset Price Processes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 593-617.
- Dybvig, Philip H & Rogers, L C G, 1997. "Recovery of Preferences from Observed Wealth in a Single Realization," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 151-74.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.