IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wrk/warwec/1090.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rational Expectations and Farsighted Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Dutta, Bhaskar

    (Department of Economics University of Warwick)

  • Vohra, Rajiv

    (Brown University)

Abstract

In the study of farsighted coalitional behavior, a central role is played by the von Neumann-Morgenstern (1944) stable set and its modification that incorporates farsightedness. Such a modification was first proposed by Harsanyi (1974) and has recently been re-formulated by Ray and Vohra (2015). The farsighted stable set is based on a notion of indirect dominance in which an outcome can be dominated by a chain of coalitional ‘moves’ in which each coalition that is involved in the sequence eventually stands to gain. However, it does not require that each coalition make a maximal move, i.e., one that is not Pareto dominated (for the members of the coalition in question) by another. Nor does it restrict coalitions to hold common expectations regarding the continuation path from every state. Consequently, when there are multiple continuation paths the farsighted stable set can yield unreasonable predictions. We resolve this difficulty by requiring all coalitions to have common rational expectations about the transition from one outcome to another. This leads to two related concepts: the rational expectations farsighted stable set (REFS) and the strong rational expectations farsighted stable set (SREFS). We apply these concepts to simple games and to pillage games to illustrate the consequences of imposing rational expectations for farsighted stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Dutta, Bhaskar & Vohra, Rajiv, 2015. "Rational Expectations and Farsighted Stability," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1090, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1090
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2015/twerp_1090_dutta.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ray, Debraj, 2007. "A Game-Theoretic Perspective on Coalition Formation," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199207954.
    2. R.J. Aumann & S. Hart (ed.), 2002. "Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    3. Mauleon, Ana & Vannetelbosch, Vincent J. & Vergote, Wouter, 2011. "Von Neumann-Morgenstern farsightedly stable sets in two-sided matching," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(3), September.
    4. Bloch, Francis, 1996. "Sequential Formation of Coalitions in Games with Externalities and Fixed Payoff Division," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 90-123, May.
    5. Ana Mauleon & Vincent Vannetelbosch, 2004. "Farsightedness and Cautiousness in Coalition Formation Games with Positive Spillovers," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 291-324, May.
    6. John C. Harsanyi, 1974. "An Equilibrium-Point Interpretation of Stable Sets and a Proposed Alternative Definition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(11), pages 1472-1495, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kimya, Mert, 0. "Equilibrium coalitional behavior," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    2. Kimya, Mert, 2020. "Farsighted Objections and Maximality in One-to-one Matching Problems," Working Papers 2020-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    3. Bloch, Francis & van den Nouweland, Anne, 2020. "Farsighted stability with heterogeneous expectations," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 32-54.
    4. Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Mauleon, Ana & Vannetelbosch, Vincent, 2020. "Matching with myopic and farsighted players," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. Fotso, Alphonse Fodouop & Pongou, Roland & Tchantcho, Bertrand, 2017. "Conservative vs optimistic rationality in games: A revisitation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 42-47.
    6. Karos, Dominik & Kasper, Laura, 2018. "Farsighted Rationality," Research Memorandum 011, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    7. Toshiyuki Hirai, 2018. "Single-payoff farsighted stable sets in strategic games with dominant punishment strategies," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 47(4), pages 1087-1111, November.
    8. Korpela, Ville & Lombardi, Michele & Vartiainen, Hannu, 2020. "Do coalitions matter in designing institutions?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    9. Korpela, Ville & Lombardi, Michele & Vartiainen, Hannu, 2019. "Implementation with foresighted agents," MPRA Paper 102496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kimya, Mert, 2021. "Coalition Formation Under Dominance Invariance," Working Papers 202106, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    11. Chenghong Luo & Ana Mauleon & Vincent Vannetelbosch, 2021. "Network formation with myopic and farsighted players," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 71(4), pages 1283-1317, June.
    12. Bayer, Péter & Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Peeters, Ronald, 2019. "Farsighted manipulation and exploitation in networks," Research Memorandum 023, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    13. Talamàs, Eduard, 2018. "Fair stable sets of simple games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 574-584.
    14. de Callatay, Pierre & Mauleon, Ana & Vannetelbosch, Vincent, 2021. "Myopic-Farsighted Absorbing Networks," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2021003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    15. Chenghong Luo & Ana Mauleon & Vincent Vannetelbosch, 0. "Network formation with myopic and farsighted players," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 0, pages 1-35.
    16. Hirai, Toshiyuki & Watanabe, Naoki & Muto, Shigeo, 2019. "Farsighted stability in patent licensing: An abstract game approach," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 141-160.
    17. Korpela, Ville & Lombardi, Michele, 2019. "Mechanism design with farsighted agents," MPRA Paper 94436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kimya, Mert, 2020. "Farsighted Objections and Maximality in One-to-one Matching Problems," Working Papers 202014, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Jul 2021.
    19. Troyan, Peter & Delacrétaz, David & Kloosterman, Andrew, 2020. "Essentially stable matchings," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 370-390.
    20. Casella, Alessandra & Palfrey, Thomas R., 2021. "Trading votes for votes: A laboratory study," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1-26.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dutta, Bhaskar & Vartiainen, Hannu, 2020. "Coalition formation and history dependence," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), January.
    2. Dutta, Bhaskar & Vartiainen, Hannu, 0. "Coalition formation and history dependence," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    3. Korpela, Ville & Lombardi, Michele & Vartiainen, Hannu, 2019. "Implementation with foresighted agents," MPRA Paper 102496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bloch, Francis & van den Nouweland, Anne, 2020. "Farsighted stability with heterogeneous expectations," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 32-54.
    5. Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Mauleon, Ana & Vannetelbosch, Vincent, 2020. "Matching with myopic and farsighted players," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    6. Ray, Debraj & Vohra, Rajiv, 2015. "Coalition Formation," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,, Elsevier.
    7. Debraj Ray & Rajiv Vohra, 2015. "The Farsighted Stable Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 977-1011, May.
    8. P. Jean-Jacques Herings & Ana Mauleon & Vincent Vannetelbosch, 2019. "Stability of networks under horizon-K farsightedness," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(1), pages 177-201, July.
    9. Kimya, Mert, 2021. "Coalition Formation Under Dominance Invariance," Working Papers 202106, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    10. Akira Okada, 2015. "Cooperation and Institution in Games," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 1-32, March.
    11. Kimya, Mert, 0. "Equilibrium coalitional behavior," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    12. Hannu Vartiainen, 2015. "Dynamic stable set as a tournament solution," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 45(2), pages 309-327, September.
    13. Takaaki Abe, 2018. "Stable coalition structures in symmetric majority games: a coincidence between myopia and farsightedness," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(3), pages 353-374, October.
    14. Karos, Dominik & Kasper, Laura, 2018. "Farsighted Rationality," Research Memorandum 011, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    15. Ana Mauleon & Elena Molis & Vincent Vannetelbosch & Wouter Vergote, 2014. "Dominance invariant one-to-one matching problems," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 43(4), pages 925-943, November.
    16. Herings, Jean-Jacques & Mauleon, Ana & Vannetelbosch, Vincent, 2020. "Do Stable Outcomes Survive in Marriage Problems with Myopic and Farsighted Players?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2020033, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    17. HERINGS, P. Jean-Jacques & MAULEON, Ana & VANNETELBOSCH, Vincent, 2014. "Stability of networks under level-K farsightedness," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014032, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    18. Kóczy, LászlóÁ., 2015. "Stationary consistent equilibrium coalition structures constitute the recursive core," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 104-110.
    19. Hirai, Toshiyuki & Watanabe, Naoki & Muto, Shigeo, 2019. "Farsighted stability in patent licensing: An abstract game approach," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 141-160.
    20. Kimya, Mert, 2020. "Farsighted Objections and Maximality in One-to-one Matching Problems," Working Papers 202014, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Jul 2021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stable sets ; farsightedness ; consistency ; maximality ; rational expectations ; simple games ; pillage games. Classification -JEL: C71 ; D72 ; D74;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C71 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Cooperative Games
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1090. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margaret Nash (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.