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Estimating the Size of Oil Tanker Spills


  • Ayla Ogus

    (IZmir University of Economics)


This paper estimates the determinants of the size of oil tanker spills. In the lit- erature, spill size has been estimated but the results are not very strong. A review of the existing results is provided and the determinants of spill size using a sample selection model are estimated. Estimates from a Tobit regressions are also given to serve as a basis of comparison with the earlier work. One important nding is that groundings and collisions result in larger spills if there is a spill, but the likelihood that there will be a spill due to a grounding or collision is very low. Tanker size is found to have only a marginal e ect on the probability of a spill and a dubious e ect on spill size. US ag tankers and new tankers are found to have a lower probability of causing spills compared to foreign ag and old tankers, respectively. US ag tankers do not have smaller spills when type of cargo variables are included in the analysis. So it is not straightforward to claim that US ag tankers have smaller spills due to stricter regulations. 1

Suggested Citation

  • Ayla Ogus, 2005. "Estimating the Size of Oil Tanker Spills," Others 0504003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0504003
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 25

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cohen, Mark A, 1987. "Optimal Enforcement Strategy to Prevent Oil Spills: An Application of a Principal-Agent Model with Moral Hazard," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-51, April.
    2. Eric E. Anderson & Wayne K. Talley, 1995. "The Oil Spill Size of Tanker and Barge Accidents: Determinants and Policy Implications," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 71(2), pages 216-228.
    3. Goodstein, Eban, 1992. "Saturday effects in tanker oil spills," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 276-288, November.
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    More about this item


    size of oil spills; sample selection models;

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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