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Government size and output volatility: is there a relationship?

Author

Listed:
  • Matti Virén

    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

This paper provides some further tests for the proposition that a larger public sector leads to smaller output volatility. Both Gali and Fatas & Mihov have provided some evidence which appears to support this proposition. Their evidence is, however, based on a relatively small sample of countries. In this study, we go beyond the OECD sample and focus on a much larger World Bank data set covering up to 208 countries for the period 1960–2002. We also seek to utilise some time series aspects of the material by using pooled cross-section time series data. Tests with different models and measures clearly indicate that the original results are not very robust and the relationship between government size and output volatility is either nonexistent or very weak at best.

Suggested Citation

  • Matti Virén, 2005. "Government size and output volatility: is there a relationship?," Macroeconomics 0508025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0508025
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 28
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0508/0508025.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ray Barrell & Ian Hurst & Álvaro Pina, 2002. "Fiscal Targets, Automatic Stabilisers and their Effects on Output," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/05, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2003. "The Fiscal Smile: The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Working Papers 2003/182, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    4. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
    5. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
    6. Koskela, Erkki & Viren, Matti, 2003. "Government Size and Output Volatility: New International Evidence," Discussion Papers 857, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    7. McCallum, B. T. & Whitaker, J. K., 1979. "The effectiveness of fiscal feedback rules and automatic stabilizers under rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 171-186, April.
    8. Alesina, Alberto & Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Openness, country size and government," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 305-321, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M S Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2009. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    2. Kashif Munir & Nimra Riaz, 2019. "Fiscal Policy and Macroecomonic Stability in South Asian Countries," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 228(1), pages 13-33, March.
    3. Erkam Sari & Hakan Hotunluoglu, 2021. "Government Size and Openness: Insights Basedon Country Classifications," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government; fiscal policy; automatic stabilisers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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