IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0206004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility

Author

Listed:
  • Aykut Kibritcioglu

    (Ankara University)

Abstract

In the financial crisis literature, it is usually argued that, contrary to the case of currency crises, building a time series index to identify banking crisis episodes is highly difficult, particularly because of the lack of reliable data on banking sector variables (non-performing loans, etc.). Accordingly, existing methods applied to pinpoint banking crisis years are generally event-based, such as that used by Caprio and Klingebiel (1996 and 1999) and Lindgren et al. (1996). This paper, however, proposes a weighted banking sector fragility index to measure changes in banks' vulnerability to crisis. Using monthly sectoral data for selected 22 countries, it is argued that this type of a fragility index seems to be highly useful in measurement and monitoring of changes in banking sector fragility. That is, it significantly may contribute to policy makers' efforts towards early detection of approaching banking sector difficulties. [To download the country-specific BSF indices: http://politics.ankara.edu.tr/~kibritci/banking/]

Suggested Citation

  • Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2002. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility," Macroeconomics 0206004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Mar 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0206004
    Note: Type of Document - Acrobar Reader (pdf) file; prepared on PC; to print on Any printer / Letter sized paper; pages: 16 ; figures: included
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0206/0206004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Arteta, Carlos, 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt3pk9t1h2, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    3. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    7. Disyatat, Piti, 2004. "Currency crises and the real economy: The role of banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 75-90, February.
    8. Mr. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "The Nordic Banking Crises: Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization?," IMF Working Papers 1995/061, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    10. William C. Gruben & John H. Welch, 2001. "Banking and currency crisis recovery: Brazil's turnaround of 1999," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 12-23.
    11. Marc Klau & John Hawkins, 2000. "Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 91, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Edward J. Kane & Tara Rice, 2001. "Bank Runs and Banking Policies: Lessons for African Policy Makers," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 10(suppl_1), pages 36-71.
    13. Mr. Angel J. Ubide & Mr. Tomás J. T. Baliño, 1999. "The Korean Financial Crisis of 1997—A Strategy of Financial Sector Reform," IMF Working Papers 1999/028, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2002. "The 1997-98 Liquidity Crisis: Asia versus Latin America," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 13, pages 413-452, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Ross Levine, 2000. "Bank Concentration: Chile and International Comparisons," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 62, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2002. "The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1-1.
    17. Sherry L. Kiser & Jahyeong Koo, 2001. "Recovery from a financial crisis: the case of South Korea," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 24-36.
    18. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Barry Eichengreen & Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Crises now and then: what lessons from the last era of financial globalization?," Chapters, in: Paul Mizen (ed.), Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    21. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    22. Mr. Edward J Frydl, 1999. "The Length and Cost of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 1999/030, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Hiroshi Nakaso, 2001. "The financial crisis in Japan during the 1990s: how the Bank of Japan responded and the lessons learnt," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 06.
    24. Mr. Adolfo Barajas & Mr. Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2002/053, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Mr. Desiree Cherebin & Mr. Rupert D Worrell & Ms. Tracy Polius, 2001. "Financial System Soundness in the Caribbean: An Initial Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2001/123, International Monetary Fund.
    26. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
    27. John H. Boyd & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Sungkyu Kwak & Bruce David Smith, 2014. "A User's Guide to Banking Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 800-892, November.
    28. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    29. Mr. Mari Pangestu & Mr. Manggi Habir, 2002. "The Boom, Bust and Restructuring of Indonesian Banks," IMF Working Papers 2002/066, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Englund, Peter, 1999. "The Swedish Banking Crisis: Roots and Consequences," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 80-97, Autumn.
    31. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-1.
    32. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 2000. "Measuring real economic effects of bailouts: historical perspectives on how countries in financial distress have fared with and without bailouts," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 81-167, December.
    33. Mr. Kenneth H Kang & Ms. Hong Liang & Mr. Henry Ma & Mr. Anthony J. Richards & Mr. Ajai Chopra & Ms. Meral Karasulu, 2001. "From Crisis to Recovery in Korea: Strategy, Achievements, and Lessons," IMF Working Papers 2001/154, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ari, Ali & Dagtekin, Rustem, 2007. "Early Warning Signals of the 2000/2001 Turkish Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 25857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aleh Mazol, 2019. "The Influence of Financial Stress on Economic Activity and Monetary Policy in Belarus," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 49-75, June.
    3. Ousama Ben Salha & Tarek Bouazizi & Chaker Aloui, 2012. "Financial Liberalization, Banking Crises and Economic Growth: The Case of South Mediterranean Countries," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, August.
    4. Mete Feridun, 2009. "Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 65-81, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kibritcioglu, Aykut, 2002. "Excessive Risk-Taking, Banking Sector Fragility, and Banking Crises," Working Papers 02-0114, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
    2. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192, pages 68-83, April.
    5. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
    6. Basabi Bhattacharya & Tanima Niyogi Sinha Roy, 2012. "Indicators of Banking Fragility in India: An Empirical Test," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 13(2), pages 265-290, September.
    7. Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
    8. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2020. "Together or apart? The relationship between currency and banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    11. Shimpalee, Pattama L. & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2006. "Currency crises and institutions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 125-145, February.
    12. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
    13. J‹Rgen Von Hagen & Tai-Kuang Ho, 2007. "Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1037-1066, August.
    14. Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.
    17. Mustapha Djennas & Mohamed Benbouziane & Meriem Djennas, 2011. "An Approach of Combining Empirical Mode Decomposition and Neural Network Learning for Currency Crisis Forecasting," Working Papers 627, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    18. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    19. Wong, Jim & Wong, Tak-Chuen & Leung, Phyllis, 2010. "Predicting banking distress in the EMEAP economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 169-179, September.
    20. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "Lessons from the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking sector fragility; banking crises; Argentina; Bolivia; Brazil; Chile; Indonesia; Israel; Japan; Jordan; Kenya; Malaysia; Malta; Mexico; Pakistan; Peru; Philippines; Poland; South Korea; Sweden; Thailand; Trinidad and Tobago; Turkey; and Venezuela;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0206004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.