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Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Democratic Vote Share

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  • Miaojie Yu

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on an amended Mayer-Heckscher-Ohlin model with parties by studying the effects of U.S. tariffs on the Democratic vote share. The effects are estimated with fixed effects and Two-Stage Least Squares based on data from the House of Representatives from the years 1982 to 2000. Weighted trade policy proxy for each congressional district are constructed and shown to be significant. Overall, a 10% decrease of weighted tariffs leads to a 12% decrease in the Democratic vote share in the election to the House, ceteris paribus. Also, the predictions of the model for electoral outcome are consistent with today’s U.S. politics.

Suggested Citation

  • Miaojie Yu, 2005. "Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Democratic Vote Share," International Trade 0511001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0511001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1982. "Tariff Seeking and the Efficient Tariff," NBER Chapters,in: Import Competition and Response, pages 245-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Baldwin, Robert E & Magee, Christopher S, 2000. "Is Trade Policy for Sale? Congressional Voting on Recent Trade Bills," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 79-101, October.
    3. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1994. "Protection for Sale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 833-850, September.
    4. Leamer, Edward E. & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "International trade theory: The evidence," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1339-1394 Elsevier.
    5. Robert C. Feenstra & Gene M. Grossman & Douglas A. Irwin (ed.), 1996. "The Political Economy of Trade Policy: Papers in Honor of Jagdish Bhagwati," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061864.
    6. Dutt, Pushan & Mitra, Devashish, 2002. "Endogenous trade policy through majority voting: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 107-133, October.
    7. Magee,Stephen P. & Brock,William A. & Young,Leslie, 1989. "Black Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521377003, January.
    8. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-160, February.
    9. Beaulieu, Eugene, 2002. "The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem Faces Congress," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 343-360, May.
    10. Douglas A. Irwin, 1995. "Industry or Class Cleavages over Trade Policy? Evidence from the BritishGeneral Election of 1923," NBER Working Papers 5170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    12. Anderson, T W & Sawa, Takamitsu, 1979. "Evaluation of the Distribution Function of the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimate," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 163-182, January.
    13. Mayer, Wolfgang, 1984. "Endogenous Tariff Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 970-985, December.
    14. repec:cup:apsrev:v:88:y:1994:i:01:p:33-47_09 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tariffs; Democratic vote share; campaign contributions; House election;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism

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