IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The interplay of export supply and the real exchange rate. Evidence for Mercosur exports to the EU

  • Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D.

    (Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research of the University of Goettingen)

  • Inmaculada Martínez- Zarzoso

This paper applies a dynamic macroeconomic trade model to assess Mercosur-European Union trade. Looking at export supply of Mercosur countries (the four formal members plus Chile), the role of the real exchange rate, income and the income-absorption surplus or deficit are evaluated. Special emphasis is put on the reaction of exports with respect to changes of the real exchange rate. The model is tested for a sample of five countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) over the period of 1961-1996. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. We find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the common effect model. The variables income and income-absorption surplus are found to be important determinants of trade flows. The real exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on export supply in the long-term, whereas current and past changes in the real exchange rate seem to play no role for current total export trade in the short-and medium-term. Having this latter time horizon, it could be shown that Mercosur´s total exports react extremely parsimoniously and slowly with respect to changes in the real exchange rate. This phenomenon could be due to the large share of agricultural and forestry products in Mercosur´s exports.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/it/papers/0309/0309020.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0309020.

as
in new window

Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 19 Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0309020
Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; pages: 28 ; figures: none
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Khan, Mohsin S & Knight, Malcolm D, 1988. "Import Compression and Export Performance in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 315-21, May.
  2. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, March.
  3. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  4. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2003. "Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur- European trade flows," International Trade 0309019, EconWPA.
  5. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2001. "Artificial Regressions," Working Papers 1038, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-86, May.
  7. Faini, Riccardo, 1994. "Export supply, capacity and relative prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 81-100, October.
  8. Beenstock, Michael & Lavi, Yaakov & Ribon, Sigal, 1994. "The supply and demand for exports in Israel," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 333-350, August.
  9. Rodgers, Yana van der Meulen, 1998. "Empirical investigation of one OPEC country's successful non-oil export performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 399-420, April.
  10. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  11. Newman, John L. & Lavy, Victor & de Vreyer, Philippe, 1995. "Export and output supply functions with endogenous domestic prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 119-141, February.
  12. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Stevenson, Andrew A & Montagna, Catia, 1995. "Modeling Aggregate Manufactured Exports for Some Asian Newly Industrialized Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 147-55, February.
  13. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1989. "Testing for Consistency using Artificial Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 363-384, December.
  14. Lourdes Moreno, 1997. "The determinants of Spanish industrial exports to the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 723-732.
  15. T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, 03.
  16. W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, 08.
  17. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0309020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.