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Regionalism, Trade And Growth: The Case Of The Eu-South Africa Free Trade Arrangement

Author

Listed:
  • Soamiely Andriamananjara

    (U.S. International Trade Commission)

  • Russell Hillberry

    (U.S. International Trade Commission)

Abstract

In a sequential Computable General Equilibrium analysis, we investigate the likely effects of the EU-South Africa Free Trade agreement (FTA), with a special emphasis on South Africa’s growth prospects. We find that the FTA increases South African output and welfare. We note, however, that the gains are very modest when viewed in the context of the time period over which full adjustment to the treaty provisions is expected to occur. Only 2 percent of the economic growth expected over the next 18 years in South Africa can be linked to additional trade associated with the FTA. The long phase-in period and the partial benefits of regionalism limit the importance of trade as an engine of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Soamiely Andriamananjara & Russell Hillberry, 2001. "Regionalism, Trade And Growth: The Case Of The Eu-South Africa Free Trade Arrangement," International Trade 0108001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0108001
    Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on PC; to print on HP/PostScript/Franciscan monk; pages: 18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:umd:umdeco:rodriguez9901 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. By Gunnar Jonsson & Arvind Subramanian, 2001. "Dynamic Gains from Trade: Evidence from South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-8.
    3. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Hérault, 2004. "Un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (MEGC) pour évaluer les effets de l'ouverture au commerce international : le cas de l'Afrique du Sud," Documents de travail 102, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    2. Winters, Alan, 2003. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What Do We Know?," Conference papers 331162, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Jeffrey D. Lewis & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2003. "Free Trade Agreements and the SADC Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 12(2), pages 156-206, June.
    4. Chang, Hsiao-Chuan, 2003. "Is International Trade Guilty for an Enlarging Wage Differential? A Dynamic Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model," Conference papers 331075, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Rivera, Sandra A. & Tsigas, Marinos E., 2005. "How does China’s growth affect India? An Economywide Analysis," Conference papers 331359, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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