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Regionalism, Trade And Growth: The Case Of The Eu-South Africa Free Trade Arrangement

Author

Listed:
  • Soamiely Andriamananjara

    (U.S. International Trade Commission)

  • Russell Hillberry

    (U.S. International Trade Commission)

Abstract

In a sequential Computable General Equilibrium analysis, we investigate the likely effects of the EU-South Africa Free Trade agreement (FTA), with a special emphasis on South Africa’s growth prospects. We find that the FTA increases South African output and welfare. We note, however, that the gains are very modest when viewed in the context of the time period over which full adjustment to the treaty provisions is expected to occur. Only 2 percent of the economic growth expected over the next 18 years in South Africa can be linked to additional trade associated with the FTA. The long phase-in period and the partial benefits of regionalism limit the importance of trade as an engine of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Soamiely Andriamananjara & Russell Hillberry, 2001. "Regionalism, Trade And Growth: The Case Of The Eu-South Africa Free Trade Arrangement," International Trade 0108001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0108001
    Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on PC; to print on HP/PostScript/Franciscan monk; pages: 18
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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/it/papers/0108/0108001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. By Gunnar Jonsson & Arvind Subramanian, 2001. "Dynamic Gains from Trade: Evidence from South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-8.
    2. repec:umd:umdeco:rodriguez9901 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey D. Lewis & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2003. "Free Trade Agreements and the SADC Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(2), pages 156-206, June.
    2. Nicolas Hérault, 2004. "Un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (MEGC) pour évaluer les effets de l'ouverture au commerce international : le cas de l'Afrique du Sud," Documents de travail 102, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free Trade Area; South Africa; European Union;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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