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Interactions between financial markets and macroeconomic variables in EU: a nonlinear modeling approach

Author

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  • Lucian-Liviu Albu

  • Radu Lupu
  • Adrian Cantemir Calin

Abstract

There is a general acceptance of the fact that a significant direct relationship between financial markets and macroeconomic variables exists, especially by considering the assertion that developed financial markets correspond to high GDP levels. This paper provides an investigation of the correlation between the market capitalization and stock market dynamics on one hand and GDP per capita on the other hand, for two groups of regions in EU (western countries, EU15, and central and eastern countries, EU11). Based on data for a number of EU countries (both western and eastern) and using some special modelling techniques, we provide an analysis of the convergence phenomenon for both the macroeconomic variables and the financial ones. Using a deep time resolution and some spline functions we generated high frequency time series (the so-called virtual monthly GDP) to investigate the correlations with financial markets. In spite of ECB?s carefull monitoring of the financial integration within the euro zone, a possible financial integration process within the non-euro zone continues to be ignored. It seems that due to the weak development of financial markets, the economies outside of the euro zone are relatively more protected against crisis when compared to those inside the euro zone. Therefore, the so-called contagion effect is weaker in the Central and Eastern region of European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucian-Liviu Albu & Radu Lupu & Adrian Cantemir Calin, 2015. "Interactions between financial markets and macroeconomic variables in EU: a nonlinear modeling approach," ERSA conference papers ersa15p685, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa15p685
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Iancu, Aurel & Olteanu, Dan, 2015. "Fiscal Consolidation by Austerity and EU Surveillance Policies," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 151209, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    2. Dumitrache Vlad Ionut & Constantinescu Maria, 2016. "EU Security Challenges and Their Economic Implications," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 3-28.
    3. Lucian Liviu Albu, 2016. "Trends in the relation between regional convergence and economic growth in EU," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 161101, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    4. Lucian-Liviu Albu, 2016. "Modelling of the relation between financial market and growth in EU: convergence and behavioural regimes," EcoMod2016 9694, EcoMod.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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