IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wiwrsa/ersa03p523.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining the Election Results in Portugal: A Spatial Econometrics Point of View

Author

Listed:
  • Gertrudes Saúde Guerreiro

    ()

  • António Caleiro

    ()

Abstract

The great majority of the theoretical analysis about political business cycles (PBCs) has considered the national space as the territory of interest for the study of the economic consequences of an electoralist behaviour by the central government. This fact, in conjunction to the nature of the data most commonly available, has lead many authors to empirical studies which, by the use of more or less sophisticated econometric techniques, intend to verify the empirical evidence of PBCs. Given that the election results for the main parties, at least for Portugal, clearly reflect some spatial localization we find rather intriguing to verify that so very few of those empirical studies use spatial econometrics techniques. A causal observation on the data concerning the (Portuguese) election results over space shows that the results obtained by the incumbent, at a regional level, should not be considered completely independent of the party ruling the distinct municipalities distributed over the national territory. This being said, the paper’s main objective is the analysis of the results corresponding to the last legislative election that took place in Portugal, from the PBCs viewpoint, by the use of well-known techniques of spatial econometrics. The confrontation of the results with the ones obtained ignoring the spatial localization of the data will lead us to the nature and extent of the improvement on the results obtained by spatial econometrics techniques in what concerns the detection of empirical evidence supporting the existence of PBCs in Portugal.

Suggested Citation

  • Gertrudes Saúde Guerreiro & António Caleiro, 2003. "Explaining the Election Results in Portugal: A Spatial Econometrics Point of View," ERSA conference papers ersa03p523, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa03p523
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa03/cdrom/papers/523.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gartner, Manfred, 2000. " Political Macroeconomics: A Survey of Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 527-561, December.
    2. repec:cup:apsrev:v:71:y:1977:i:04:p:1467-1487_26 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Luc Anselin, 2001. "Spatial Effects in Econometric Practice in Environmental and Resource Economics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 705-710.
    4. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    5. Alberto Alesina, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-678.
    6. Kelley Pace, R. & Barry, Ronald, 1997. "Sparse spatial autoregressions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 291-297, May.
    7. Ellis, Christopher J., 1991. "Endogenous voting in a partisan model with rational voters," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 267-278.
    8. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Spolaore, Enrico, 1994. "How cynical can an incumbent be? Strategic policy in a model of government spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 121-140, September.
    9. Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 1982. "The political theory of the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 253-270.
    10. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1988. "Credibility and politics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 542-550, March.
    11. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    12. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    13. Minford, Patrick, 1988. "A Political Model of Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa03p523. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier). General contact details of provider: http://www.ersa.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.