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Explaining the Election Results in Portugal: A Spatial Econometrics Point of View

  • Gertrudes Saúde Guerreiro

    ()

  • António Caleiro

    ()

The great majority of the theoretical analysis about political business cycles (PBCs) has considered the national space as the territory of interest for the study of the economic consequences of an electoralist behaviour by the central government. This fact, in conjunction to the nature of the data most commonly available, has lead many authors to empirical studies which, by the use of more or less sophisticated econometric techniques, intend to verify the empirical evidence of PBCs. Given that the election results for the main parties, at least for Portugal, clearly reflect some spatial localization we find rather intriguing to verify that so very few of those empirical studies use spatial econometrics techniques. A causal observation on the data concerning the (Portuguese) election results over space shows that the results obtained by the incumbent, at a regional level, should not be considered completely independent of the party ruling the distinct municipalities distributed over the national territory. This being said, the paper’s main objective is the analysis of the results corresponding to the last legislative election that took place in Portugal, from the PBCs viewpoint, by the use of well-known techniques of spatial econometrics. The confrontation of the results with the ones obtained ignoring the spatial localization of the data will lead us to the nature and extent of the improvement on the results obtained by spatial econometrics techniques in what concerns the detection of empirical evidence supporting the existence of PBCs in Portugal.

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Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa03p523.

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Date of creation: Aug 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa03p523
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  1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Spolaore, Enrico, 1994. "How cynical can an incumbent be? Strategic policy in a model of government spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 121-140, September.
  2. Luc Anselin, 2001. "Spatial Effects in Econometric Practice in Environmental and Resource Economics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 705-710.
  3. Minford, Patrick, 1988. "A Political Model of Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1986. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
  6. Gartner, Manfred, 2000. " Political Macroeconomics: A Survey of Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 527-61, December.
  7. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August.
  8. Ellis, Christopher J., 1991. "Endogenous voting in a partisan model with rational voters," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 267-278.
  9. Kelley Pace, R. & Barry, Ronald, 1997. "Sparse spatial autoregressions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 291-297, May.
  10. Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 1982. "The political theory of the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 253-270.
  11. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1988. "Credibility and politics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 542-550, March.
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