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Abschätzung des altersbedingten Abgangs von Fachkräften auf regionaler Ebene

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl
  • Julia Bock-Schappelwein
  • Thomas Url

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die Bevölkerungsprognose von Statistik Austria erwartet in Österreich ab 2025 einen Rückgang der Bevölkerung im erwerbsfähigen Alter (15 bis 64 Jahre). Diese Entwicklung wird auch von einem Wandel in der Bildungsstruktur der unselbständig Beschäftigten begleitet. Erstens sind nachrückende bzw. neu in den Arbeitsmarkt eintretende Kohorten schwächer besetzt und zweitens weisen sie höhere Bildungsabschlüsse auf. Aufbauend auf der Studie "Auswirkungen des Nicht-Handelns: Mögliche Kosten des altersbedingten Abgangs von Fachkräften" im Auftrag der Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien wird hier das Szenario ohne Ausgleichsmechanismen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt um regionale Aussagen ergänzt. In diesem Szenario wird angenommen, dass die bis 2029 ausscheidenden älteren Jahrgänge mit einem Lehrabschluss ausschließlich durch die nachrückenden jungen Geburtsjahrgänge mit einem Lehrabschluss nachbesetzt werden, wodurch sich eine Fachkräftelücke auftut.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Thomas Url, 2025. "Abschätzung des altersbedingten Abgangs von Fachkräften auf regionaler Ebene," WIFO Research Briefs 14, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:rbrief:y:2025:i:14
    Note: With English abstract.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:55:i::p:art.7 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Zilian, Laura S. & Zilian, Stella S. & Jäger, Georg, 2021. "Labour market polarisation revisited: evidence from Austrian vacancy data," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 55, pages 1-007.
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    6. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:55:p:art.07 is not listed on IDEAS
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